Updating the 'race'

It's been a few games since I laid out what the Tigers (and Twins/Sox) had to do in order for Detroit to have a real chance to make the playoffs.  Let's see how it has gone so far:  
             

Tigers
Record Needed	3-1
Record Since Prediction	2-2
+/-	-1
Twins
Record Needed	1-3
Record Since Prediction	3-1
+/-	+2
White Sox
Record Needed	2-3
Record Since Prediction	3-2
+/-	+1

 


So not too bad, but not all that good either.  The Twins managed to beat Cliff Lee and take 2/3 from the Mariners.  Chicago took one from the Yankees.  The Tigers lost two heart breakers to the Blue Jays, getting the winning or tying runs on base in the ninth inning or later, only to fall a little short.  Those two games were sandwiched between two quality wins.  I heard earlier this week that the schedule has worked out that Verlander and Scherzer will both pitch in all four series against Chicago and Minnesota down the stretch, so there is that.


Twins-Tigers for three games starting tonight.  Win tonight's game and we'll go from there.

Ssshhh, don't look now^!

^ I started formulating this post a couple days ago, but then I thought, I'll give the Tigers another day to keep the momentum going...then yesterday, up 3-0 on the lowly Royals, I got greedy and wanted to wait out a win and, hopefully,  Twins and White Sox losses.  Valverde's non-biting (gumming?) splitter, and a Willie Bloomquist homer later, and the win was gone.  It was still a five game win streak, so I'm going for it.


So, I said a 5 game win streak and 10 of 12 would bring me back...after the first two wins vs. KC, the streak was at 5 and 8 of 11, so that is close enough.  Of course, the Twins are winning at a .987 rate or thereabouts, so this might all be moot.  But there is a glimmer...faint, but it's there.  So I might as well break down the rest of the year while the Tigers chances are still slim.

Who will decide the Central division this year?  Aside from the obvious three teams - Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota - we have the other Central teams (KC and Cleveland), which everyone would expect.  The three contenders (and I'll continue to refer to Detroit as a contender for the purposes of this post, no need to point out their chances of making the playoffs are barely over half of one percent) play each other a total of 32 times.  The other two Central teams are played a total of 30 times.  The list of shared opponents - Toronto and Baltimore (8), Texas (6), and Oakland (6).  Those are the facts.


The Dream Sequence, wherein the author outlines what it would take for the Tigers to make up a 9 game deficit with 35 games to play.


Detroit plays both teams ahead of them two series apiece, 13 games total, one home and one away.  Sweeps are needed at home, and 2/3 on the road.  This is possible - the Tigers took 2 of 3 from the White Sox earlier this month.  The Tigers also play Toronto for 4.  The Tigers split a series with the Jays in July, but that included a split of a double header.  Without that, could have been 3 of 4.  Let's plan on 3 of 4 again.  Six games with the Royals.  Without a bullpen meltdown, the Royals would have been swept this week, so 5 of 6 is not out of the question, and a pair of sweeps is certainly attainable.  Two against Texas - they are playing well, a split is probably the best case scenario.  Three against Cleveland - they've packed it in for the year, this is a sweep.  Finally, seven games against Baltimore.  This team has shown a lot of life since Buck Showalter arrived, and they've played the White Sox tough this week.  That being said, their starting pitching is shaky, their lineup is lacking, and they have no true closer.  This needs to be 5 of 7 at the very least.

By my tally, it is 11-2 against Minnesota and Chicago, 3-1 against Toronto, 5-1 against KC, 1-1 against Texas, 3-0 against Cleveland, and 5-2 against Baltimore.  That is 28-7.  We've seen this before from the Colorado Rockies.  It is doable.  That whole, one game at a time mantra.  One series at a time.  (Except, every game, every series, the whole year is on the line.)

Of course, even with that record, the Twins and White Sox have to lose some games.  In addition to being 9 back of Minnesota, Detroit is 5.5 back of Chicago.  What will the Twins do down the stretch?  Four against Texas - they are struggling against the Rangers at the moment.  Let's say 1-3.  Three against Seattle, starting with a road game the night after another night game on the road at Texas.  They lose the first game in the series and another one, 1-2.  I've already detailed the 1-5 record against Detroit.  Six against KC - 4-2.  Six against Cleveland - 5-1 at least I am sure.  White Sox - 1-2.  Oakland - 2-1.  Toronto - 3-1.  That brings the total to 18-17.  I promise - Scout's honor - I did the series by series record without adding it up along the way, so the fact that this results in the Tigers beating Minnesota by a game...just coincidence.

Chicago?  They'll beat Baltimore tonight, 1-0.  Yankees - 0-3, I think the Yankees sweep.  Cleveland - 4-2.  Boston - tough one to gauge...two series, seven games...I'll split down the middle, 3-4 record for Chicago.  1-6 against Detroit.  2-1 against Minnesota.  2-1 against KC.  2-1 against Oakland.  1-2 against the Angels.  Grand total - 16-20.  Tigers easily eclipse the Sox.


The Reality Sequence, wherein the author takes a more realistic and comprehensive approach to the rest of the year.


I have conveniently left out the home/road splits in the remaining schedule.  The Tigers have 13 home games, 22 on the road.  The Twins - 19 and 16.  The Sox have 20 and 16.  The Tigers' road woes^ have been well documented.  To think they can compile a 16-6 road record down the stretch is wishful thinking.  11-11 is probably the best any reasonable person can assume - which would come up short.

^  I think everyone is required to use the word 'woes' when discussing a poor road team's road record.


Besides the road record, the Tigers post-All Star game record under Jim Leyland is another factor.  Every year, the Tigers have stumbled home.  Why should this year be any different?

Looking at the opponents further, with the current rotation, Zack Greinke would pitch against the Tigers twice, Minnesota once, and the White Sox would miss him entirely.  While he has struggled this year compared to last year's dominance, GreinkeSox will probably be out of the race.  Minnesota gets Cliff Lee tonight, but misses him later this year (as do the Tigers, luckily).

It all adds up to a more realistic goal being a .500 season record.  I still think 90 wins is an outside possibility, and 92 wins would probably take the division.^

^ It is pretty telling that even with my dream sequence record of 28-7, the Tigers would still finish at 91 wins and short of my realistic number of wins to take the division.


The Nightmare Sequence, wherein the author details what it would take to give up all hope.


The Tigers start a 10 game road trip tonight.  This is make or break.  By the time they get back to Detroit, it will be the second week of September and we'll know a lot more.  But I wouldn't be surprised by a 2-8 road trip - Toronto is playing well, Minnesota has found another field for their home field advantage, and KC always plays Detroit tough.

It wouldn't even take that much - anything less than 2 wins @ Minnesota would probably be enough to be a nail in the coffin.

There is plenty else out there - Johnny^ Damon staying in Detroit probably being the biggest thing - but that is for another, hopefully shorter, post.

^ If nothing else, keeping Damon around for another few weeks will hopefully influence Jhonny Peralta to learn how to spell his name correctly.

Sorry about that, Tigers!

My jumping back on the ship has caused it to sink a little more...my bad!  My Tiger has been raking, at least, and keeping alive any hope for the Triple Crown (albeit those hopes are very remote with Jose Bautista channeling Brady Anderson , 1996 edition).  But even Jim Leyland has abandoned most hope:

"[The Yankees are] going to the playoffs. We're not going anywhere. Somebody is going to get hurt."

Read more: Pitch hits Miguel Cabrera, irks Jim Leyland in Tigers' loss | freep.com | Detroit Free Press http://www.freep.com/article/20100819/SPORTS02/8190588/1050/Tigers-plunked-by-Yanks-Cabrera-hit-Leyland-irked#ixzz0x5OBCnnq

Do his comment bother me?  Some, but I think managers say whatever it takes in those arguments with umpires to get their point across.  I also think what he said is true, and he's just saying what everyone else is thinking and feeling anyway.

I'll keep listening when I can, but barring a miracle - and the White Sox and Twins choking - it will have to wait till next year...

Okay, I lied...

...it only took 3 straight wins and 4 of 5 (not 5 straight and 10 of 12) for me to lather back up, get on board, and tune back into wxyt.com.  Go Tigers!

Side note - on wxyt's afternoon Valenti and Foster show, they always seem to get more feedback when they have a non-sports topic.  Like today - it's all about what to do with Detroit and Mayor Dave Bing's comments about needing to rightsize Detroit.  Thoughts?  Urban farming was brought up a few months ago (maybe even last year), and from what it sounds, corn fields or pavement or grass or ANYTHING is better than neighborhoods with eight occupied houses out of 60.  To do it right and effectively, though, eminent domain may be needed.  It seemed like, when he took office, Mayor Bing was willing to make the tough decisions and be the bad guy if it meant getting to the goal of saving Detroit.  Now he's turning into a regular politician, worrying about catering to everyone while making no progress.

Where's the Tiger dirt?

No, not Tigers, but Tiger, as in, Woods.  A couple of months ago, you could not avoid it.  CNN, TMZ, ESPN, Univision - everyone had every detail of Tiger's fall from grace.  Now - crickets.  Could it be that people are actually giving him and his family their space and privacy?  Or is it just that there isn't anything new to report, and 24-7 coverage of Tiger-Gate 2009-2010 ran its course after 6 months or so?

I don't condone what he allegedly did.  I've known enough serial monogamists (not to be confused with CEREAL monogamists - I'LL LOVE YOU FOREVER, CHEERIOS!) to know that there is enough blame to go around, but Tiger does sound like he was the supreme dirt bag if even 5% of the rumors are true.  But still - the guy is human, and no one deserves to have their dirty laundry dragged through the streets of the world.  At least records of infidelity from 20+ years ago would require some work to find these days - now, once someone clicks "publish" or "post" or "tweet" it is there forever.  And when Tiger's kids and grandkids Google/Bing/Yahoo/Altavista (it's going to make a come back, these things are cyclical) his name, they'll find out everything they wanted to know and much much more.  So, I hope that humanity is actually giving him a break and letting him deal with his issues in private.

But all bets are off on the next slow news day...

Smoke and Mirrors

The End, for me, started when I got a Groupon deal for a month of MLB.tv for $5. Seemed innocent enough - I upgrade from the radio stream for a month for a measly $5. This came out right before the All Star break, so I waited to activate the subscription till after the break (after all, I'm getting 30 days, it would be silly to waste 4 days when the Tigers aren't even playing). The Tigers, coincidently, peaked right before the All Star break, but I wouldn't know that for another month or so. The day before the break, the (hated) White Sox won and the Tigers lost. It was only a one game swing, and the Sox went into first by a scant 1/2 game, so no big deal, right?

Then the wheels started to fall off. Inge broke his hand. Magglio broke his ankle. Guillen pulled a calf muscle. Boesch^ started reading his scouting reports from last year and regressed to being a marginal prospect. I think Leyland got EXTRA black lung. Everyone was falling apart.

^ Another bad sign - in my complicated but insanely addictive fantasy baseball keeper league, I was quick to snap up Boesch, and he helped me to get into first place. I also signed him to a two year contract extension, right in the midst of his downward spiral. ^^

^^ I probably can't steal Joe Posnanski's Posterisk so this can be...the Procaret? Work in progress.

Up until this point, I was all about following the Tigers. The soundtrack for my days at work was 97.1 FM. I was lathered up. Then the losses started coming...and kept coming...my friend and I took our annual summer baseball trip, this year to Boston, and we got to see two walk off Red Sox wins.

When I came back from Boston, Detroit sports talk radio was replaced by the iPod. Watching Tigers games on MLB.tv was replaced by catching a couple minutes of the radio broadcast, if that. Like Joe Pos (brilliantly) wrote about the Mariners, we should have seen this coming. (Easy to see it coming after the fact, but still.) The Tigers pulled this in 2007. At the All Star break, they were in 1st place. A second half fade later, and Detroit was on the outside of the playoffs, looking in. Repeat in 2009 (see: game 163). Repeat in 2010 (see: now). Even in 2006, Detroit managed to blow the division by getting swept by the (adopted home town) Royals. Why the second half swoons? Why the 'bad luck'?

The Central Division has something to do with it. Since the teams are so (polite) evenly matched, or if you prefer (harsh), crappy, every team feels like they are in it. Even KC had a brief hot streak in 2009 and led the division by 3 games! They rode that momentum of hope the whole year. Every minute bit of success in this division will bring people jumping on the bandwagon, when really, a bad (or average) week will bring any team back to the pack.

I think one downfall of the Tigers is their poor road record. Good teams win on the road, at least SOME. This year, it is also their poor intra-division record. Good teams win against there division, usually a LOT.

This year there were a couple rookies (Jackson, Boesch) playing well to start the season, a veteran (Magglio) playing way above his last dismal year, another (Damon) holding his own, and a stud (Cabrera) in the hunt for the triple crown. That masked the lack of production from SS, 2B, C, and 3B. Take away even one of these performers - let alone 3 or 4 - and it goes downhill quickly.

I looked at the Red Sox lineup while we were in Boston, and mentally replaced all of their injured All Stars. Even with 3 missing perennial All Stars, there were 6 legitimate major leaguers. The Tigers? Busta Rhymes at second. Batting thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiird - anyone? Hey, out there in the bleachers, you with the Tigers hat - are you wearing cleats? No? Okay, I guess Raburn will have to do.

Anyway, if the Tigers reel off 5 straight wins, 10 of 12, and are looking at a sub-3 game deficit heading into September, I'll be back on board. Until then, it's Snow Patrol and Fall Out Boy.