It's never too early to look at next year

Well, two heart- and back-breaking losses to the Twins later, and all of a sudden the Tigers are scouting outfielders and shortstops, not opponents.  It was an exciting year, especially the first half, but turn off the lights, this show is over.

Now, on to next year.  What holes do the Tigers have to fill?  Here is the status of the current team:

C - Gerald Laird - free agent; no hit catcher; Tigers need fewer no-hit players in their lineup (seems obvious)
C - Alex Avila - showed some promise; his defense improved, and his bat regressed
1B - Miguel Cabrera - not going anywhere
2B - Carlos Guillen - under contract for 2011; broken
2B - Will Rhymes - showing promise; another Boesch, or is it sustainable?
SS - Jhonny Peralta - free agent after buyout; misspells first name; not ideal but decent option if cheap
2B/SS - Ramon Santiago - like him as a utility guy
3B - Brandon Inge - free agent; no power or average this year; nice guy, I've heard; not ideal
OF - Brennan Boesch - pencil him into right field and hope for the best
OF - Austin Jackson - the real deal; not as much power as Granderson but better average, speed, and defense
OF - Ryan Raburn - showed some promise recently; perfect fourth outfielder/super utility
OF - Johnny Damon - full time DH now; power is gone; likes Detroit, or at least likes Mike Illitch's money
OF - Don Kelly - decent utility guy, nothing more
OF - Casper Wells - showed some promise after his callup; named after ghost
OF - Magglio Ordonez - free agent after option is declined; lineup was much better with him than without

SP - Justin Verlander - not going anywhere
SP - Max Scherzer - not going anywhere
SP - Rick Porcello - not going anywhere
SP - Armando Galarraga - shockingly, very solid recently; I wouldn't hate him as our fifth starter
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - free agent; good come back year; discussed retiring

RP - Jose Valverde - really fell off after the All Star break; I am hoping he is injured to explain the falloff
RP - Joel Zumaya - his injury really messed up the pen (common story); can we hope for another comeback?
RP - Phil Coke - pretty good this year; moving him to the starting rotation should be considered
RP - Ryan Perry - mediocre this year; need improvement for next year
RP - Eddie Bonine - decent long reliever; can give or take him
RP - Brad Thomas - decent as a LOOGY
RP - Daniel Schlereth - potential as a closer if he improves command
RP - Alfredo Figaro - can give or take him
RP - Robbie Weinhardt - showed signs of being competent

Minors
2B/SS - Danny Worth - eh
2B - Scott Sizemore - eh++
SP - Andy Oliver - he could make the team out of spring training next year if he puts it all together
SP - Jacob Turner - young and raw, but so was Porcello last year; could be a surprise in the spring, but probably looking at 2012

Salary obligations for 2011 - $55M (compared to $133M in 2010)

So...how would you spend someone else's $80 million?  Even if the fat is trimmed and there is just $50 million to spend, there is a lot of impact that can be found.  Let's see what we can do...(the percentages I list are not the chance they WILL sign them, but the chances Detroit will be on the list of teams the players decide between)

#1 - Carl Crawford, LF, 29 years old on opening day (he seems younger)
Comparable player(s) - Ichiro (5 yrs, $80M), Jason Bay (4 yrs, $66M)
Analysis - Crawford has a rare combination of speed and power and is the class of this free agent...class, at least for the outfield.  Not as high of an average guy like Ichiro, and doesn't have the power that Bay displayed before he showed up in NY.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 6 yrs, $90M
What the Yankees will pay - 8 yrs, $140M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 35%

#2 - Adam Dunn, LF/1B/DH, 31 years old on opening day (I thought he was older)
Comparable players(s) - Adrian Gonzalez (4 yrs, $9.5M - yikes!  How cheap is that?!), Ryan Howard (5 yrs, $125M - yikes!  How expensive is that?!)
Analysis - Dunn is the premier power hitter and OBP guy this year.  Lower average than Gonzo, less power than Ryno.  If the Nationals don't re-sign him, there will be teams lining up.  I read somewhere that he doesn't want to be a pure DH, but signing those big checks will soften the blow.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $60M
What the Yankees will pay - 4 yrs, $75M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 65%

Note - both Crawford and Dunn have the same agent, some dude named Brian Peters.  Two thoughts:
A) lucky guy this year.  His family will get some nice Christmas presents.  iPads all around!
B) group discount?  Doubtful.  But, if the Tigers are in talks with one and don't make it happen, it could make a good impression with the agent and help negotiations with the other.

#3 - Adrian Beltre, 3B, 32 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Chone Figgins (4 yrs, $36M) (this works on two levels - in a contract year, Beltre plays hard and does well - like Figgins...after signing a huge contract, Beltre sucks again - like Figgins!)
Analysis - since Beltre is the ultimate walk-year performer, I'd love to see him stay on one-year contracts, but that probably won't happen.  He has nothing left to prove to get his next big deal, and Scott Boras is his agent.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $40M
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $60M (Even the gluttonous evil empire won't go after him though, right?  The only way it would happen is if Jeter walks, A-Rod moves to SS, and they bring in Beltre, which would make real baseball sense.  But since the Yankees don't play real baseball, they just play fantasy baseball for real results, that probably won't happen.)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 80%, but probably closer to the going Yankees rate than the normal rate due to the Boras-Illitch relationship.

#4 - Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, 35 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Justin Morneau (6 yrs, $80M)
Analysis - Konerko has had a great free agent year, but he's the oldest guy we've considered so far.  He is an ideal candidate to move to DH, as his defense at first base has gotten worse to the point of being awful this year (according to my first ever search for a player's UZR).
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $33M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 60%

#5 - Alex Gonzalez, SS, 34 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - ironically, Jhonny Peralta (5 yrs, $13M, but that is cheap)
Analysis - Gonzalez has some decent power, middling average, poor OBP...basically the same as Peralta, just six years older.  Gonzalez is above average on defense, while Peralta is slightly below average to awful on defense, depending on whether he plays SS or 3B.  Given that Peralta is younger, you'd think I'd prefer him...not so fast, my friend^.  Gonzalez's advanced age would lend him to a one-year deal, which, given the lack of faith in this year's SS crop, I'm all in favor of.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 1 yr, $3.5M (he signed a one year $2.75M deal last year, and he deserves a raise)
What the Yankees would pay - 2 yrs, $5M (and he could go to NY as a utility player, who knows)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 70%

^ I'm talking to you, Andy, aka, my readership.

#6 - John Buck, C, a young 30 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Jason Varitek (1 yr, $5M - a contract that is the result of probably Scott Boras's worst failure - turning down arbitration for Varitek when he could have make closer to $10M...oops)
Analysis - Buck has had a great year, considering he was just kicked to the curb by Kansas City for Jason Kendall.  Not Dayton Moore's proudest moment I'm sure.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $5M (he signed for 1 yr $2M last year, like Gonzalez, with Toronto - Alex Papadapolis^  has had a great first year as GM) - I'd even say a team wouldn't be too out of whack to go 3 yrs $9M for Buck, but a long term commitment to a catcher is tough to do
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $12M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 90%

^ I know his last name is Anthopolous, but I also know Webster is underrated and any search for George and M'am's last name will now hit this blog.  So I've got that going for me.

#7 - Scott Downs, RP, 35 on opening day (didn't think he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Brandon Lyon (3 yrs, $15M - an overpayment for sure)
Analysis - Toronto wouldn't trade Downs, so I assume they will offer arbitration, meaning Downs will get a raise on his $4M this year.  But I think he can get a two year deal at least, so the team that signs him after declining will give up a pick.  If the Tigers get a bunch of type-A free agents, though, only the best one will take the first round pick, so it is not that bad.^
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $6M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $11M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 40%

^ If you look at it that way, it's best to load up on the type-A free agents every so often so you don't lose your first round pick every single year.


#8 - Carl Pavano 2.0, SP, 35 on opening day (I think I knew he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Andy Pettitte (1 yr, $11.75M), Carl Pavano 1.0 (4 yrs, $39.95M)
Analysis - Look, I hate this guy when he pitches against the Tigers.  His WAR is between 3 and 4, but when you factor in he wins EVERY SINGLE GAME against the Tigers, and that he inevitably pitches against Detroit EVERY SINGLE SERIES his team faces Detroit, his WAR turns into about 20 or 30 if he plays on the Tigers.  It's just science.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay him - 4 yrs, $39.94M (They'll be DAMNED if they pay as much for him this time around!)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 25% (wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota offer arbitration and for him to accept)

So there you have it.  If the Tigers somehow signed everyone I listed for the non-Yankees rate, it would be a $69M commitment.  I think that would be very reasonable for revamping 8 positions on the roster.  What I do not want to see is the same amount spent on the likes of Bonderman, Damon, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge^.  If the Tigers can pick up even two of these guys, they will be a better team next year.  The unknowns of Boesch and Rymes and, to a lesser extent, Avila need to be figured out.  Do the Tigers need to fill those holes too?  I would like to see those three guys play every day from here on out as a pre-Spring training.  If Boesch can pull himself out of his slump, maybe even have him play winter ball, then he could be a corner stone for the future.  If not...Detroit might have to go to Yankees territory to sign someone out of desperation.

^ I wouldn't mind having some of those guys back, but not if no one else of importance is signed.  It is clear that this team, as constructed, won't win the division, so changes have to be made.  Trading Granderson last offseason was tough, but it improved the team on different levels and made them younger and better positioned for the long haul.  Replacing Inge and Bonderman can accomplish the same thing.  Magglio is the one player I'd most want to return, but at a discount - 2 yrs, $10M could do it.