I was reading Joe Posnanski's latest article (which is good, as always) and something struck me. Ever since he came out with his Jerry Sandusky initial reaction and Joe Paterno commentary I've felt different about Joe Pos. His Paterno take was completely sensical - Paterno led a complete life, this one incident is one thing among many, don't rush to judgment, etc. - but it left me dissatisfied. And everything I have read from him since then has been a shadow of his former work. Not that the quality is diminished - but its effect on me certainly has. I am reading his words through the shadow that has been cast by his opinions about the Penn State saga.
And that helped me realize my problem with hockey. I have always been a Red Wings fan. While the Tigers were struggling, Detroit became Hockey Town. My room was plastered with Wings posters, replicas of the Detroit News and Free Press front page spreads showing Steve Yzerman hoisting the Stanley Cup. I can still his his toothless grin, the embodiment of joy and accomplishment...but since the 2004-05 season was lost to the lockout, nothing has been the same. The Wings have won the Stanley Cup since then, and have always been at or near the top the league - so it isn't from lack of success. I did move across country, so that surely has something to do with it, but more to the point - the sport as a whole is a shadow of its former self. Losing an entire season^ made it like a whole new sport once it returned. The players changed, the economics changed, everything changed. And there just wasn't any room for a whole new NHL.
^ And what about the THREE seasons lost due to the Rich Rod experiment in Ann Arbor? I was not a faithful UM follower toward the end of the RR era, and I am just now starting to get back on board. And I did not miss a game for close to a decade, either sitting in the student section or watching as each game was televised nationally every week.
This shadow-NHL is changing again, drastically realigning the divisions. I hope they bring back the old-school division names^ - Norris, Adams, Patrick, Smythe - but that would just be a novelty to me. I don't know when the shadow will lift, but for now, it has me viewing hockey from afar.
^ Anything but Leaders and Legends. Please.
I see that same shadow falling on the NBA now. The Pistons are making moves, the league landscape is changing, and when basketball starts again, it will be hard to remember last season. Sports are a welcome distraction from the daily grind and common bond between fellow fans throughout the world - but when the shifting sports landscape is distracting in itself, and the common bond is broken because the team you once knew is unrecognizable...that is when the shadow has fallen, and that sport threatens to fade into obscurity.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Lions-Vikings postmortem
Well that was exciting. Joe Webb, best known for his unique Fantasy Football position eligibility, decided to teach the lackadaisical Lions defense a lesson. And who knows -in a league where Tyler Palko, T.J. Yates, and Matt Moore are all starting, Joe Webb might have a future as a backup or slash-guy, ala Antwaan Randle El or Brad Smith. But he is not someone who should be torching the Lions to the tune of 12/23 for 84 yards and a TD passing (that sounds very Joe Webb-like) and 109 rushing yards on SEVEN carries for a TD (that sounds very Adrian Peterson-like). The Lions were missing several people from the defense, but there are no excuses for this performance. More duds like this against a sneaky Oakland team and a surging Chargers team will lead to an 8-8 season and missing the playoffs - and more choruses of "Same old Lions."
On the bright side, there were no stupid penalties and the offense started strong. The D did have a couple touchdowns, so it might seem overly critical to blame the defense, but in reality, Minnesota should have won the game at the end. Let's all just hope this is the start of some new luck and there is enough momentum to carry into the playoffs...
On the bright side, there were no stupid penalties and the offense started strong. The D did have a couple touchdowns, so it might seem overly critical to blame the defense, but in reality, Minnesota should have won the game at the end. Let's all just hope this is the start of some new luck and there is enough momentum to carry into the playoffs...
Friday, December 9, 2011
Hamburgler Sighted in Kansas, and David Stern flinches
Today was slow on the Detroit sports front. The Tigers swapped out one youngish right-handed reliever for another. Can you believe that a couple years after being part of a Roy Halladay trade that never happened, Ryan Perry is only good enough to get an out-of-options middle reliever? Hindsight being what it is, it seems pretty clear that a Porcello-Perry-Casey Crosby package for Roy Halladay would have been a steal for Detroit. Ugh.
In news local to me, I tuned into what passes for comedy radio on the way home tonight - the Charlie Weis introductory press conference at Kansas!^ At least they can break out their old t-shirts from the Mark Mangino era. But really, this is probably a good move for everyone involved. Best case scenario for everyone - Weis is really successful and that catapults him to a better job. If he falls on his face and KU performs like KU, he'll be gone soon anyway. My prediction - he'll bring KU back to respectability and will land an NFL gig in three or four years.
^Not quitting my day job...or my night job...
In NBA news, the Hornets, Lakers, and Rockets swung a trade that would have landed Chris Paul in L.A. Problem is, Commissioner David Stern vetoed the deal. The deal might be back on but the fact that the veto happened at all is troubling. The NBA itself owns the Hornets, so that is how the commissioner had any say in the trade. Having a team owned by, essentially, each of the other teams in the league leads to conflicts of interest such as this. Dan Gilbert, fresh off of his LeBron Comic Sans screed, kept the hits coming with a few choice words about the Chris Paul trade^.
^No word on the font used in the email. Vegas has Calibri as an early favorite at 1 to 2, but Comic Sans is worth a flier at 4 to 1.
I doubt he would have been voicing any concerns if Paul ended up on the Cavs, or even if the Cavs facilitated the Paul trade.^ But since someone else profited, he stomped his feet and got Daddy to take away his brother's toy. What a joke. Once again, the conflict of interest when a league owns one of its teams is unavoidable. The MLB did the same thing when they jerked around the Expos for a couple years.
^Not that anyone would want the pu pu platter the Cavs would have to offer up in a trade.
The best thing that could happen to the Hornets is a sale so someone with the team's best interests in mind can start making decisions. And with a Paul trade, all accounts are that the team itself would be improved, and a better team is always a better asset.^
^Unless you're the Clippers.
Now that David Stern has allowed the teams to try the trade again, it will be interesting to see what a new deal looks like. If the same deal goes through, the NBA will be admitting they were wrong to veto the trade in the first place. I am guessing there is some nominal change - the Lakers giving up a second round pick or something - just so David Stern can save face.
In news local to me, I tuned into what passes for comedy radio on the way home tonight - the Charlie Weis introductory press conference at Kansas!^ At least they can break out their old t-shirts from the Mark Mangino era. But really, this is probably a good move for everyone involved. Best case scenario for everyone - Weis is really successful and that catapults him to a better job. If he falls on his face and KU performs like KU, he'll be gone soon anyway. My prediction - he'll bring KU back to respectability and will land an NFL gig in three or four years.
^Not quitting my day job...or my night job...
In NBA news, the Hornets, Lakers, and Rockets swung a trade that would have landed Chris Paul in L.A. Problem is, Commissioner David Stern vetoed the deal. The deal might be back on but the fact that the veto happened at all is troubling. The NBA itself owns the Hornets, so that is how the commissioner had any say in the trade. Having a team owned by, essentially, each of the other teams in the league leads to conflicts of interest such as this. Dan Gilbert, fresh off of his LeBron Comic Sans screed, kept the hits coming with a few choice words about the Chris Paul trade^.
^No word on the font used in the email. Vegas has Calibri as an early favorite at 1 to 2, but Comic Sans is worth a flier at 4 to 1.
I doubt he would have been voicing any concerns if Paul ended up on the Cavs, or even if the Cavs facilitated the Paul trade.^ But since someone else profited, he stomped his feet and got Daddy to take away his brother's toy. What a joke. Once again, the conflict of interest when a league owns one of its teams is unavoidable. The MLB did the same thing when they jerked around the Expos for a couple years.
^Not that anyone would want the pu pu platter the Cavs would have to offer up in a trade.
The best thing that could happen to the Hornets is a sale so someone with the team's best interests in mind can start making decisions. And with a Paul trade, all accounts are that the team itself would be improved, and a better team is always a better asset.^
^Unless you're the Clippers.
Now that David Stern has allowed the teams to try the trade again, it will be interesting to see what a new deal looks like. If the same deal goes through, the NBA will be admitting they were wrong to veto the trade in the first place. I am guessing there is some nominal change - the Lakers giving up a second round pick or something - just so David Stern can save face.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Today in Detroit Sports - 12/8/11
I'm going to try to sum up the Detroit-centric sports landscape every day. Let's see how it goes...
- Wings - game tonight, 7:30 vs Phoenix. This starts the home stand that has been marketed as "The once and future Jets" series^, with the Old Jets playing tonight and the New Jets coming to The Joe on Saturday. The Wings are an up and down team, streaking to several wins in a row, then a few losses. Wash, rinse, repeat. Following two losses, this feels like a W to me.
- Tigers - the huge news out of the Baseball Winter Meetings today was the Tigers signing of Octavio Dotel! That immediately makes them the favorite in the AL and it would be a huge upset for anyone else to reach the world series from the Junior Circuit. Of course, the Angels made a couple of smaller moves, signing a fourth starter and adding depth at first base. Coupled with the move of the Astros to the AL West, the Angels and Rangers will be near locks for 90 wins a year for the next few years. With an extra wild card team, though, the Tigers situation is still the same - win the AL Central if you want to make the playoffs. I still see the Tigers making another move or two this winter, maybe the Cuban Centipede or a 2B.
- Pistons - welcome back, Tayshaun Prince! 4 years, $30M or so. In other words, business as usual. I will admit, the Pistons have been on the far back burner for me the last few years, and this doesn't help. Brandon Knight should be an exciting rookie, but this move will only weigh down the team and inhibit their future moves. How can the owners blame their losses on anyone but themselves?!
- Lions - Suh is out, Jared Allen rips the city, two Lions have torn ligaments...thankfully this is a bye week. Oh sure, some people in Vikings uniforms will be running around Ford Field on Sunday, but I think it's just a scrimmage.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Tigers Hot Stove - 12/7 Update
No news is...no news. There are some fires in the iron though:
- Yoenis Cespedes - whose name is a little too close to Yunieski Betancourt for my tastes - is on the Tiger's radar. Dombrowski visited with him in the Dominican Republic^. All I know is that I won't learn to spell his name unless he signs with us. Till then, Cespedes is Spanish for Copy/Paste.
^ When reached for comment, Jim Price said, "Nice area."
- Gio Gonzalez's name has been thrown around. He would be a huge addition. The way I see it, if Jacob Turner turns out to be a stud, Gonzalez is basically Turner in two years (plus left-handed). Those two years would be the cheapest in Turner's career, but with the new super-two rules, he is more likely to be a super-two, which means, more expensive. If Turner is in line for Gonzalez's arbitration pay schedule in two years, that would be the best case scenario. So making the trade for Gio is like fast-forwarding Turner's development two years. Sounds like a good deal to me. Of course, the A's are asking for more (reportedly Nick Castellanos, Brennan Boesch, Gene Lamont, 2 packs a day from Leyland, and that singing hot dog vendor dude). I wouldn't want to trade Boesch, especially if the plan is to flip Delmon Young for anything (hopefully Martin Prado from the Braves), but I'd drop Castellanos and some other middling prospect with Turner to get Gonzalez. Making that move would put us even further ahead in the division race. If Gonzalez goes elsewhere outside of the division, no biggie - but if the Royals manage to trade for him (and they have a much better stable of prospects than the Tigers), the gap between Us and Them in the division gets a lot smaller, and the reliance on Turner or Oliver or anyone else to step up as a fifth starter becomes that much more important.
Well, that year went by fast
Forgive me, Internet, for I have sinned. It's been over a year since my last post. What has happened? Let's recap!
- The Tigers went to the ALCS. Nicely done.
- The Wings went to the playoffs. Since they didn't win the Cup, I don't remember how far they went.
- The Pistons were horrible. Then they almost canceled the NBA season. Then they decided to play after all.
- The Lions started hot, stumbled, and are now clinging to a playoff spot. Thankfully every other team is doing its best to crap the bed, so the Lions just have to stop stomping people and they will make it in.
- Michigan had a surprisingly good first season under Brady Hoke.
- Michigan State had an even better season. Of course UM went to a better bowl game, which makes sense in this Bowl $ystem.^
^See what I did there?
I hope to post some insights about our beloved Detroit teams on a semi-regular basis. So...see you in a year or two!
- The Tigers went to the ALCS. Nicely done.
- The Wings went to the playoffs. Since they didn't win the Cup, I don't remember how far they went.
- The Pistons were horrible. Then they almost canceled the NBA season. Then they decided to play after all.
- The Lions started hot, stumbled, and are now clinging to a playoff spot. Thankfully every other team is doing its best to crap the bed, so the Lions just have to stop stomping people and they will make it in.
- Michigan had a surprisingly good first season under Brady Hoke.
- Michigan State had an even better season. Of course UM went to a better bowl game, which makes sense in this Bowl $ystem.^
^See what I did there?
I hope to post some insights about our beloved Detroit teams on a semi-regular basis. So...see you in a year or two!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
It's never too early to look at next year
Well, two heart- and back-breaking losses to the Twins later, and all of a sudden the Tigers are scouting outfielders and shortstops, not opponents. It was an exciting year, especially the first half, but turn off the lights, this show is over.
Now, on to next year. What holes do the Tigers have to fill? Here is the status of the current team:
C - Gerald Laird - free agent; no hit catcher; Tigers need fewer no-hit players in their lineup (seems obvious)
C - Alex Avila - showed some promise; his defense improved, and his bat regressed
1B - Miguel Cabrera - not going anywhere
2B - Carlos Guillen - under contract for 2011; broken
2B - Will Rhymes - showing promise; another Boesch, or is it sustainable?
SS - Jhonny Peralta - free agent after buyout; misspells first name; not ideal but decent option if cheap
2B/SS - Ramon Santiago - like him as a utility guy
3B - Brandon Inge - free agent; no power or average this year; nice guy, I've heard; not ideal
OF - Brennan Boesch - pencil him into right field and hope for the best
OF - Austin Jackson - the real deal; not as much power as Granderson but better average, speed, and defense
OF - Ryan Raburn - showed some promise recently; perfect fourth outfielder/super utility
OF - Johnny Damon - full time DH now; power is gone; likes Detroit, or at least likes Mike Illitch's money
OF - Don Kelly - decent utility guy, nothing more
OF - Casper Wells - showed some promise after his callup; named after ghost
OF - Magglio Ordonez - free agent after option is declined; lineup was much better with him than without
SP - Justin Verlander - not going anywhere
SP - Max Scherzer - not going anywhere
SP - Rick Porcello - not going anywhere
SP - Armando Galarraga - shockingly, very solid recently; I wouldn't hate him as our fifth starter
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - free agent; good come back year; discussed retiring
RP - Jose Valverde - really fell off after the All Star break; I am hoping he is injured to explain the falloff
RP - Joel Zumaya - his injury really messed up the pen (common story); can we hope for another comeback?
RP - Phil Coke - pretty good this year; moving him to the starting rotation should be considered
RP - Ryan Perry - mediocre this year; need improvement for next year
RP - Eddie Bonine - decent long reliever; can give or take him
RP - Brad Thomas - decent as a LOOGY
RP - Daniel Schlereth - potential as a closer if he improves command
RP - Alfredo Figaro - can give or take him
RP - Robbie Weinhardt - showed signs of being competent
Minors
2B/SS - Danny Worth - eh
2B - Scott Sizemore - eh++
SP - Andy Oliver - he could make the team out of spring training next year if he puts it all together
SP - Jacob Turner - young and raw, but so was Porcello last year; could be a surprise in the spring, but probably looking at 2012
Salary obligations for 2011 - $55M (compared to $133M in 2010)
So...how would you spend someone else's $80 million? Even if the fat is trimmed and there is just $50 million to spend, there is a lot of impact that can be found. Let's see what we can do...(the percentages I list are not the chance they WILL sign them, but the chances Detroit will be on the list of teams the players decide between)
#1 - Carl Crawford, LF, 29 years old on opening day (he seems younger)
Comparable player(s) - Ichiro (5 yrs, $80M), Jason Bay (4 yrs, $66M)
Analysis - Crawford has a rare combination of speed and power and is the class of this free agent...class, at least for the outfield. Not as high of an average guy like Ichiro, and doesn't have the power that Bay displayed before he showed up in NY.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 6 yrs, $90M
What the Yankees will pay - 8 yrs, $140M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 35%
#2 - Adam Dunn, LF/1B/DH, 31 years old on opening day (I thought he was older)
Comparable players(s) - Adrian Gonzalez (4 yrs, $9.5M - yikes! How cheap is that?!), Ryan Howard (5 yrs, $125M - yikes! How expensive is that?!)
Analysis - Dunn is the premier power hitter and OBP guy this year. Lower average than Gonzo, less power than Ryno. If the Nationals don't re-sign him, there will be teams lining up. I read somewhere that he doesn't want to be a pure DH, but signing those big checks will soften the blow.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $60M
What the Yankees will pay - 4 yrs, $75M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 65%
Note - both Crawford and Dunn have the same agent, some dude named Brian Peters. Two thoughts:
A) lucky guy this year. His family will get some nice Christmas presents. iPads all around!
B) group discount? Doubtful. But, if the Tigers are in talks with one and don't make it happen, it could make a good impression with the agent and help negotiations with the other.
#3 - Adrian Beltre, 3B, 32 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Chone Figgins (4 yrs, $36M) (this works on two levels - in a contract year, Beltre plays hard and does well - like Figgins...after signing a huge contract, Beltre sucks again - like Figgins!)
Analysis - since Beltre is the ultimate walk-year performer, I'd love to see him stay on one-year contracts, but that probably won't happen. He has nothing left to prove to get his next big deal, and Scott Boras is his agent.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $40M
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $60M (Even the gluttonous evil empire won't go after him though, right? The only way it would happen is if Jeter walks, A-Rod moves to SS, and they bring in Beltre, which would make real baseball sense. But since the Yankees don't play real baseball, they just play fantasy baseball for real results, that probably won't happen.)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 80%, but probably closer to the going Yankees rate than the normal rate due to the Boras-Illitch relationship.
#4 - Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, 35 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Justin Morneau (6 yrs, $80M)
Analysis - Konerko has had a great free agent year, but he's the oldest guy we've considered so far. He is an ideal candidate to move to DH, as his defense at first base has gotten worse to the point of being awful this year (according to my first ever search for a player's UZR).
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $33M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 60%
#5 - Alex Gonzalez, SS, 34 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - ironically, Jhonny Peralta (5 yrs, $13M, but that is cheap)
Analysis - Gonzalez has some decent power, middling average, poor OBP...basically the same as Peralta, just six years older. Gonzalez is above average on defense, while Peralta is slightly below average to awful on defense, depending on whether he plays SS or 3B. Given that Peralta is younger, you'd think I'd prefer him...not so fast, my friend^. Gonzalez's advanced age would lend him to a one-year deal, which, given the lack of faith in this year's SS crop, I'm all in favor of.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 1 yr, $3.5M (he signed a one year $2.75M deal last year, and he deserves a raise)
What the Yankees would pay - 2 yrs, $5M (and he could go to NY as a utility player, who knows)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 70%
^ I'm talking to you, Andy, aka, my readership.
#6 - John Buck, C, a young 30 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Jason Varitek (1 yr, $5M - a contract that is the result of probably Scott Boras's worst failure - turning down arbitration for Varitek when he could have make closer to $10M...oops)
Analysis - Buck has had a great year, considering he was just kicked to the curb by Kansas City for Jason Kendall. Not Dayton Moore's proudest moment I'm sure.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $5M (he signed for 1 yr $2M last year, like Gonzalez, with Toronto - Alex Papadapolis^ has had a great first year as GM) - I'd even say a team wouldn't be too out of whack to go 3 yrs $9M for Buck, but a long term commitment to a catcher is tough to do
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $12M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 90%
^ I know his last name is Anthopolous, but I also know Webster is underrated and any search for George and M'am's last name will now hit this blog. So I've got that going for me.
#7 - Scott Downs, RP, 35 on opening day (didn't think he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Brandon Lyon (3 yrs, $15M - an overpayment for sure)
Analysis - Toronto wouldn't trade Downs, so I assume they will offer arbitration, meaning Downs will get a raise on his $4M this year. But I think he can get a two year deal at least, so the team that signs him after declining will give up a pick. If the Tigers get a bunch of type-A free agents, though, only the best one will take the first round pick, so it is not that bad.^
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $6M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $11M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 40%
^ If you look at it that way, it's best to load up on the type-A free agents every so often so you don't lose your first round pick every single year.
#8 - Carl Pavano 2.0, SP, 35 on opening day (I think I knew he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Andy Pettitte (1 yr, $11.75M), Carl Pavano 1.0 (4 yrs, $39.95M)
Analysis - Look, I hate this guy when he pitches against the Tigers. His WAR is between 3 and 4, but when you factor in he wins EVERY SINGLE GAME against the Tigers, and that he inevitably pitches against Detroit EVERY SINGLE SERIES his team faces Detroit, his WAR turns into about 20 or 30 if he plays on the Tigers. It's just science.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay him - 4 yrs, $39.94M (They'll be DAMNED if they pay as much for him this time around!)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 25% (wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota offer arbitration and for him to accept)
So there you have it. If the Tigers somehow signed everyone I listed for the non-Yankees rate, it would be a $69M commitment. I think that would be very reasonable for revamping 8 positions on the roster. What I do not want to see is the same amount spent on the likes of Bonderman, Damon, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge^. If the Tigers can pick up even two of these guys, they will be a better team next year. The unknowns of Boesch and Rymes and, to a lesser extent, Avila need to be figured out. Do the Tigers need to fill those holes too? I would like to see those three guys play every day from here on out as a pre-Spring training. If Boesch can pull himself out of his slump, maybe even have him play winter ball, then he could be a corner stone for the future. If not...Detroit might have to go to Yankees territory to sign someone out of desperation.
^ I wouldn't mind having some of those guys back, but not if no one else of importance is signed. It is clear that this team, as constructed, won't win the division, so changes have to be made. Trading Granderson last offseason was tough, but it improved the team on different levels and made them younger and better positioned for the long haul. Replacing Inge and Bonderman can accomplish the same thing. Magglio is the one player I'd most want to return, but at a discount - 2 yrs, $10M could do it.
Now, on to next year. What holes do the Tigers have to fill? Here is the status of the current team:
C - Gerald Laird - free agent; no hit catcher; Tigers need fewer no-hit players in their lineup (seems obvious)
C - Alex Avila - showed some promise; his defense improved, and his bat regressed
1B - Miguel Cabrera - not going anywhere
2B - Carlos Guillen - under contract for 2011; broken
2B - Will Rhymes - showing promise; another Boesch, or is it sustainable?
SS - Jhonny Peralta - free agent after buyout; misspells first name; not ideal but decent option if cheap
2B/SS - Ramon Santiago - like him as a utility guy
3B - Brandon Inge - free agent; no power or average this year; nice guy, I've heard; not ideal
OF - Brennan Boesch - pencil him into right field and hope for the best
OF - Austin Jackson - the real deal; not as much power as Granderson but better average, speed, and defense
OF - Ryan Raburn - showed some promise recently; perfect fourth outfielder/super utility
OF - Johnny Damon - full time DH now; power is gone; likes Detroit, or at least likes Mike Illitch's money
OF - Don Kelly - decent utility guy, nothing more
OF - Casper Wells - showed some promise after his callup; named after ghost
OF - Magglio Ordonez - free agent after option is declined; lineup was much better with him than without
SP - Justin Verlander - not going anywhere
SP - Max Scherzer - not going anywhere
SP - Rick Porcello - not going anywhere
SP - Armando Galarraga - shockingly, very solid recently; I wouldn't hate him as our fifth starter
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - free agent; good come back year; discussed retiring
RP - Jose Valverde - really fell off after the All Star break; I am hoping he is injured to explain the falloff
RP - Joel Zumaya - his injury really messed up the pen (common story); can we hope for another comeback?
RP - Phil Coke - pretty good this year; moving him to the starting rotation should be considered
RP - Ryan Perry - mediocre this year; need improvement for next year
RP - Eddie Bonine - decent long reliever; can give or take him
RP - Brad Thomas - decent as a LOOGY
RP - Daniel Schlereth - potential as a closer if he improves command
RP - Alfredo Figaro - can give or take him
RP - Robbie Weinhardt - showed signs of being competent
Minors
2B/SS - Danny Worth - eh
2B - Scott Sizemore - eh++
SP - Andy Oliver - he could make the team out of spring training next year if he puts it all together
SP - Jacob Turner - young and raw, but so was Porcello last year; could be a surprise in the spring, but probably looking at 2012
Salary obligations for 2011 - $55M (compared to $133M in 2010)
So...how would you spend someone else's $80 million? Even if the fat is trimmed and there is just $50 million to spend, there is a lot of impact that can be found. Let's see what we can do...(the percentages I list are not the chance they WILL sign them, but the chances Detroit will be on the list of teams the players decide between)
#1 - Carl Crawford, LF, 29 years old on opening day (he seems younger)
Comparable player(s) - Ichiro (5 yrs, $80M), Jason Bay (4 yrs, $66M)
Analysis - Crawford has a rare combination of speed and power and is the class of this free agent...class, at least for the outfield. Not as high of an average guy like Ichiro, and doesn't have the power that Bay displayed before he showed up in NY.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 6 yrs, $90M
What the Yankees will pay - 8 yrs, $140M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 35%
#2 - Adam Dunn, LF/1B/DH, 31 years old on opening day (I thought he was older)
Comparable players(s) - Adrian Gonzalez (4 yrs, $9.5M - yikes! How cheap is that?!), Ryan Howard (5 yrs, $125M - yikes! How expensive is that?!)
Analysis - Dunn is the premier power hitter and OBP guy this year. Lower average than Gonzo, less power than Ryno. If the Nationals don't re-sign him, there will be teams lining up. I read somewhere that he doesn't want to be a pure DH, but signing those big checks will soften the blow.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $60M
What the Yankees will pay - 4 yrs, $75M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 65%
Note - both Crawford and Dunn have the same agent, some dude named Brian Peters. Two thoughts:
A) lucky guy this year. His family will get some nice Christmas presents. iPads all around!
B) group discount? Doubtful. But, if the Tigers are in talks with one and don't make it happen, it could make a good impression with the agent and help negotiations with the other.
#3 - Adrian Beltre, 3B, 32 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Chone Figgins (4 yrs, $36M) (this works on two levels - in a contract year, Beltre plays hard and does well - like Figgins...after signing a huge contract, Beltre sucks again - like Figgins!)
Analysis - since Beltre is the ultimate walk-year performer, I'd love to see him stay on one-year contracts, but that probably won't happen. He has nothing left to prove to get his next big deal, and Scott Boras is his agent.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $40M
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $60M (Even the gluttonous evil empire won't go after him though, right? The only way it would happen is if Jeter walks, A-Rod moves to SS, and they bring in Beltre, which would make real baseball sense. But since the Yankees don't play real baseball, they just play fantasy baseball for real results, that probably won't happen.)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 80%, but probably closer to the going Yankees rate than the normal rate due to the Boras-Illitch relationship.
#4 - Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, 35 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Justin Morneau (6 yrs, $80M)
Analysis - Konerko has had a great free agent year, but he's the oldest guy we've considered so far. He is an ideal candidate to move to DH, as his defense at first base has gotten worse to the point of being awful this year (according to my first ever search for a player's UZR).
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $33M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 60%
#5 - Alex Gonzalez, SS, 34 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - ironically, Jhonny Peralta (5 yrs, $13M, but that is cheap)
Analysis - Gonzalez has some decent power, middling average, poor OBP...basically the same as Peralta, just six years older. Gonzalez is above average on defense, while Peralta is slightly below average to awful on defense, depending on whether he plays SS or 3B. Given that Peralta is younger, you'd think I'd prefer him...not so fast, my friend^. Gonzalez's advanced age would lend him to a one-year deal, which, given the lack of faith in this year's SS crop, I'm all in favor of.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 1 yr, $3.5M (he signed a one year $2.75M deal last year, and he deserves a raise)
What the Yankees would pay - 2 yrs, $5M (and he could go to NY as a utility player, who knows)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 70%
^ I'm talking to you, Andy, aka, my readership.
#6 - John Buck, C, a young 30 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Jason Varitek (1 yr, $5M - a contract that is the result of probably Scott Boras's worst failure - turning down arbitration for Varitek when he could have make closer to $10M...oops)
Analysis - Buck has had a great year, considering he was just kicked to the curb by Kansas City for Jason Kendall. Not Dayton Moore's proudest moment I'm sure.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $5M (he signed for 1 yr $2M last year, like Gonzalez, with Toronto - Alex Papadapolis^ has had a great first year as GM) - I'd even say a team wouldn't be too out of whack to go 3 yrs $9M for Buck, but a long term commitment to a catcher is tough to do
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $12M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 90%
^ I know his last name is Anthopolous, but I also know Webster is underrated and any search for George and M'am's last name will now hit this blog. So I've got that going for me.
#7 - Scott Downs, RP, 35 on opening day (didn't think he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Brandon Lyon (3 yrs, $15M - an overpayment for sure)
Analysis - Toronto wouldn't trade Downs, so I assume they will offer arbitration, meaning Downs will get a raise on his $4M this year. But I think he can get a two year deal at least, so the team that signs him after declining will give up a pick. If the Tigers get a bunch of type-A free agents, though, only the best one will take the first round pick, so it is not that bad.^
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $6M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $11M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 40%
^ If you look at it that way, it's best to load up on the type-A free agents every so often so you don't lose your first round pick every single year.
#8 - Carl Pavano 2.0, SP, 35 on opening day (I think I knew he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Andy Pettitte (1 yr, $11.75M), Carl Pavano 1.0 (4 yrs, $39.95M)
Analysis - Look, I hate this guy when he pitches against the Tigers. His WAR is between 3 and 4, but when you factor in he wins EVERY SINGLE GAME against the Tigers, and that he inevitably pitches against Detroit EVERY SINGLE SERIES his team faces Detroit, his WAR turns into about 20 or 30 if he plays on the Tigers. It's just science.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay him - 4 yrs, $39.94M (They'll be DAMNED if they pay as much for him this time around!)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 25% (wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota offer arbitration and for him to accept)
So there you have it. If the Tigers somehow signed everyone I listed for the non-Yankees rate, it would be a $69M commitment. I think that would be very reasonable for revamping 8 positions on the roster. What I do not want to see is the same amount spent on the likes of Bonderman, Damon, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge^. If the Tigers can pick up even two of these guys, they will be a better team next year. The unknowns of Boesch and Rymes and, to a lesser extent, Avila need to be figured out. Do the Tigers need to fill those holes too? I would like to see those three guys play every day from here on out as a pre-Spring training. If Boesch can pull himself out of his slump, maybe even have him play winter ball, then he could be a corner stone for the future. If not...Detroit might have to go to Yankees territory to sign someone out of desperation.
^ I wouldn't mind having some of those guys back, but not if no one else of importance is signed. It is clear that this team, as constructed, won't win the division, so changes have to be made. Trading Granderson last offseason was tough, but it improved the team on different levels and made them younger and better positioned for the long haul. Replacing Inge and Bonderman can accomplish the same thing. Magglio is the one player I'd most want to return, but at a discount - 2 yrs, $10M could do it.
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