^ I started formulating this post a couple days ago, but then I thought, I'll give the Tigers another day to keep the momentum going...then yesterday, up 3-0 on the lowly Royals, I got greedy and wanted to wait out a win and, hopefully, Twins and White Sox losses. Valverde's non-biting (gumming?) splitter, and a Willie Bloomquist homer later, and the win was gone. It was still a five game win streak, so I'm going for it.
So, I said a 5 game win streak and 10 of 12 would bring me back...after the first two wins vs. KC, the streak was at 5 and 8 of 11, so that is close enough. Of course, the Twins are winning at a .987 rate or thereabouts, so this might all be moot. But there is a glimmer...faint, but it's there. So I might as well break down the rest of the year while the Tigers chances are still slim.
Who will decide the Central division this year? Aside from the obvious three teams - Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota - we have the other Central teams (KC and Cleveland), which everyone would expect. The three contenders (and I'll continue to refer to Detroit as a contender for the purposes of this post, no need to point out their chances of making the playoffs are barely over half of one percent) play each other a total of 32 times. The other two Central teams are played a total of 30 times. The list of shared opponents - Toronto and Baltimore (8), Texas (6), and Oakland (6). Those are the facts.
The Dream Sequence, wherein the author outlines what it would take for the Tigers to make up a 9 game deficit with 35 games to play.
Detroit plays both teams ahead of them two series apiece, 13 games total, one home and one away. Sweeps are needed at home, and 2/3 on the road. This is possible - the Tigers took 2 of 3 from the White Sox earlier this month. The Tigers also play Toronto for 4. The Tigers split a series with the Jays in July, but that included a split of a double header. Without that, could have been 3 of 4. Let's plan on 3 of 4 again. Six games with the Royals. Without a bullpen meltdown, the Royals would have been swept this week, so 5 of 6 is not out of the question, and a pair of sweeps is certainly attainable. Two against Texas - they are playing well, a split is probably the best case scenario. Three against Cleveland - they've packed it in for the year, this is a sweep. Finally, seven games against Baltimore. This team has shown a lot of life since Buck Showalter arrived, and they've played the White Sox tough this week. That being said, their starting pitching is shaky, their lineup is lacking, and they have no true closer. This needs to be 5 of 7 at the very least.
By my tally, it is 11-2 against Minnesota and Chicago, 3-1 against Toronto, 5-1 against KC, 1-1 against Texas, 3-0 against Cleveland, and 5-2 against Baltimore. That is 28-7. We've seen this before from the Colorado Rockies. It is doable. That whole, one game at a time mantra. One series at a time. (Except, every game, every series, the whole year is on the line.)
Of course, even with that record, the Twins and White Sox have to lose some games. In addition to being 9 back of Minnesota, Detroit is 5.5 back of Chicago. What will the Twins do down the stretch? Four against Texas - they are struggling against the Rangers at the moment. Let's say 1-3. Three against Seattle, starting with a road game the night after another night game on the road at Texas. They lose the first game in the series and another one, 1-2. I've already detailed the 1-5 record against Detroit. Six against KC - 4-2. Six against Cleveland - 5-1 at least I am sure. White Sox - 1-2. Oakland - 2-1. Toronto - 3-1. That brings the total to 18-17. I promise - Scout's honor - I did the series by series record without adding it up along the way, so the fact that this results in the Tigers beating Minnesota by a game...just coincidence.
Chicago? They'll beat Baltimore tonight, 1-0. Yankees - 0-3, I think the Yankees sweep. Cleveland - 4-2. Boston - tough one to gauge...two series, seven games...I'll split down the middle, 3-4 record for Chicago. 1-6 against Detroit. 2-1 against Minnesota. 2-1 against KC. 2-1 against Oakland. 1-2 against the Angels. Grand total - 16-20. Tigers easily eclipse the Sox.
The Reality Sequence, wherein the author takes a more realistic and comprehensive approach to the rest of the year.
I have conveniently left out the home/road splits in the remaining schedule. The Tigers have 13 home games, 22 on the road. The Twins - 19 and 16. The Sox have 20 and 16. The Tigers' road woes^ have been well documented. To think they can compile a 16-6 road record down the stretch is wishful thinking. 11-11 is probably the best any reasonable person can assume - which would come up short.
^ I think everyone is required to use the word 'woes' when discussing a poor road team's road record.
Besides the road record, the Tigers post-All Star game record under Jim Leyland is another factor. Every year, the Tigers have stumbled home. Why should this year be any different?
Looking at the opponents further, with the current rotation, Zack Greinke would pitch against the Tigers twice, Minnesota once, and the White Sox would miss him entirely. While he has struggled this year compared to last year's dominance, GreinkeSox will probably be out of the race. Minnesota gets Cliff Lee tonight, but misses him later this year (as do the Tigers, luckily).
It all adds up to a more realistic goal being a .500 season record. I still think 90 wins is an outside possibility, and 92 wins would probably take the division.^
^ It is pretty telling that even with my dream sequence record of 28-7, the Tigers would still finish at 91 wins and short of my realistic number of wins to take the division.
The Nightmare Sequence, wherein the author details what it would take to give up all hope.
The Tigers start a 10 game road trip tonight. This is make or break. By the time they get back to Detroit, it will be the second week of September and we'll know a lot more. But I wouldn't be surprised by a 2-8 road trip - Toronto is playing well, Minnesota has found another field for their home field advantage, and KC always plays Detroit tough.
It wouldn't even take that much - anything less than 2 wins @ Minnesota would probably be enough to be a nail in the coffin.
There is plenty else out there - Johnny^ Damon staying in Detroit probably being the biggest thing - but that is for another, hopefully shorter, post.
^ If nothing else, keeping Damon around for another few weeks will hopefully influence Jhonny Peralta to learn how to spell his name correctly.
2 comments:
Come on, M, let's get serious. You're not going to give up for realz until (if?!?) the Tigers are mathematically eliminated. Not that I'm much different. I watched the game tonight and the team looked good. I still believe.
Your post made me think of the line from Dumb and Dumber where the woman tells Lloyd that the chances of them getting together are one in a million. And he says optimistically, "So you're saying there's a chance!"
Go Tigers!
I try to be objective, realistic, etc. - but yeah, I'm all lathered up like you, I'll still have hope, especially with games like tonight and our recent success. First step of my plan is done - win. Next - MN and CWS both lose...that'll have to wait till tomorrow at the earliest!
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