Thursday, July 31, 2008

Goodbye Pudge...Hello, Newman - err, Farnsworth

My friend Andy said I should start a blog about the Detroit Tigers, and so I caved. But I also realized that the Tigers "only" play from February (Spring training) to (hopefully) October, so once other sports start up, or if there is anything pertinent happening with other Detroit teams, I will offer up my opinions. Till then, we have the Tigers. Ah, the Tigers...

Last night was a game that had it all - 13 innings, 7 run comeback, blown save, getting out of a bases loaded no-out jam...and I skipped the end. After 11.5 innings, I decided it was time to go to bed, especially since my wife had been in bed for 2 hours already. I turned off MLB.tv (being in Kansas City, that is my only way to watch games), brought in the dog, turned off lights, etc. I checked out GameDay one last time just in case something happened, only to see Fossum already had 2 on, no out. Disgusted, I went to bed. I woke up my wife, despite my stealth, and she got up to brush her teeth. Glutton for punishment that I am, I took that as my chance to go back and see if Fossum had blown it yet. Close - bases loaded, no out, 1-2 count. A couple balls later, and it was down to one pitch. (I can tell you I thought about Jonesy's last (forever?) blown save and how he was one strike away from winning, and how we were one ball away from losing, but I can also tell you I thought the outcomes would be the same.) I figured I should work on an ulcer, so I kept watching GameDay, not even wanting to see it happen live. When Fossum got the strikeout, I still didn't think we'd win, but at least I could go to bed with some hope. I found out in the morning the awesome details - the double play, scoring 2 in the 13th, then Fossum closing them out. Awesome, awesome win. Tremendous to come back and fight through. All this on the day the (at least to the public (read: at least to me)) emotional leader of the Tigers got traded away to the damn Yankees. That deserves its own paragraph.

We've seen Farnsworth on the Tigers before, back when we traded with the Cubs (for Roberto Novoa, Bo Flowers, and Scott Moore - who?) every few months or so, and it was a decent time. We flipped him to the Braves for someone (Roman Colon and Zach Miner - had to look that one up too) later that year. So, we turned Novoa, Flowers, Moore, and Pudge into Colon, Miner, and Farnsworth. Doesn't look even to me, especially in a market where several teams have reportedly wanted a catcher who reportedly was Pudge. The Marlins have a stocked farm system (which the Tigers do not), but who knows who they offered and how much $$ the Tigers would have had to pay of Pudge's salary. I am sure you know that certain players (like A-Rod and Manny) make more than the Marlins pay their entire roster. Pudge makes more than half their total salary - I know he is worth something, but not THAT much. I read somewhere earlier this year that the advantage the Yankees have is that they can absorb salary. Other teams would make you pay some of the player's salary, but NY will pay it. Of course, they won't give you the same level of talent in return, but it is a trade off most teams take. Like the Pirates this year, or Philly a couple years ago with Abreu and Lidle. Will Pudge be missed? Yes. Will his production be replicated with Inge + Sardinha (mostly Inge)? Most likely yes. The BA will suffer, but the power will improve. Will games be lost because Pudge's arm and game calling are gone? Unknown. I have no clue how much that plays into how the game actually unfolds, but thankfully the Tigers have been playing Inge at C much of the year so the pitching staff is used to him by now. It should not be a shock. Hopefully we can build on last night's win and keep it going today (less than 12 hours after the win).

2 comments:

Andy said...

Good analysis on the long term view of guys we received and gave up for Pudge. When you put it that way, it really doesn't look like we made good moves. However, given that we already had Pudge and his too-big contract, the front office had to make a decision...

As for the postive effect of Pudge's play-calling, it seems like it'd be pretty simple to measure something like a pitcher's ERA or opposing batting average when Pudge is catching vs. Inge (or simply just not-Pudge). With enough data (and in baseball, there's almost always data) it should be possible to discern the cumulative advantage of a catcher's play calling. All other effects should average out. Has anyone done this? Probably.

Mike said...

On an mlb.com forum chitigers posted this:

Rodriguez - 4.22
Inge - 5.53

A smaller stat but one that further proves to me he's not a good defensive catcher:

Passed Balls
Rodriguez - 4 in 706 innings with Detroit
Inge - 10 in 487 innings

So...there you go. Ouch, babe, as Dennis Miller would say. Full thread:
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-Tigers&tid=46213