I know it has been popular to say the Lions are partying like it's 1999 since they have made the playoffs for the first time since that seminal^ Bobby Ross led team^^, but I'd much prefer a 1991 remix.
^ Definition #1, not #2
^^ Who can forget that team, the most successful in the lifetime of new Lions fans? Well, me, for one. Here is a reminder. With the likes of Gus Frerrote under center and Greg Hill filling in for Barry Sanders^^^, the Lions squeaked into the playoffs with four straight losses then lost 27-13 to the Brad Johnson/Stephen Davis era Redskins. Yikes.
^^^ I did an exhaustive (> 5 minutes) internet search, but I can't find the play by play for Barry Sanders's last game as a Lion, but I have this distinct memory of him having more than 1500 yards (that would have made five straight seasons), but then having a negative run or two to bring him back to 1491, and the Lions, typically, didn't get the ball back. That would be the perfect end to Barry's career on many levels - a negative-yard run, a pathetic loss ending a pathetic season (5-11), and the franchise not caring/noticing a milestone for their greatest player.
In 1991, the Lions won the good-old Black and Blue Division, then beat up on the not-yet-Super Bowl-winning Cowboys 38-6 before losing to the eventual champion Redskins. This year, there is a real chance at winning a playoff game, which would be a great springboard to sustained success. If the Packers rest their stars, as expected, a win would have to be expected - and a win would give the Lions a game at the NFC East winners, either the Giants or the Cowboys. Neither team is that strong, and the Giants would be an especially great match up.
I haven't come to expect greatness every week, but I have come to expect respectability, and I have been pleasantly surprised with this late-season run. The Lions are hitting their stride and there's a lot to look forward to in the future. This team has pulled pieces off the street (Kevin Smith) to patch together a run game, so imagine what things will look like with Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best - or anyone else who could manage 200 carries a year. The future is bright...but the present isn't too dim either.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Amswer: 4 to 1
Question: What was the Wings-Penguins score from Tuesday?
Alternatively -
Question: How many fingers am I holding up, Sidney Crosby?
The Wings won, with the usual suspects (Datsyuk, Howard) leading the way.^ But the bigger story is Sidney Crosby missing another game with post-concussion symptoms. Crosby is the latest in the Next Gretzky lineup of players the NHL has desperately wanted - but unlike his predecessors, Crosby has been the real deal.
^ Howard has quietly solidified the Wings perennial goaltender question. Seems like he's come out of nowhere, and with the young core of players, the Wings have a solid foundation for years to come. Gone are the days of revolving re-treads (Hasek, CuJo) or reaching for the next big thing (Vernon, Essensa).
Just 24, Crosby has already led his Penguins to two Cup Finals, winning one. He also is partly responsible for the Penguins even being in Pittsburgh at this point. But he has also missed the better part of a season after suffering concussions, and now he's out again.
The speed and violence of hockey and football are what draw people to watch. That such huge athletes can make so many amazing things happen never ceases to amaze me. But I am even more amazed that there are not career threatening injuries every single game, let alone every single play. I don't know the solution - some say tighter helmet straps could help - but these guys are putting their lives on the line every time they go out on the court/field. I am not calling them heroes, but they are doing things that could result in a drastic change in their lifestyle at any moment. So when everyone cries about overpaid athletes, keep that in mind.^
^ Granted, people like teachers, firefighters, policemen, armed service members, and probably countless I am not thinking of, should all be paid more, and athletes paid less - but athletes put more on the line than we sometimes give them credit for.
Alternatively -
Question: How many fingers am I holding up, Sidney Crosby?
The Wings won, with the usual suspects (Datsyuk, Howard) leading the way.^ But the bigger story is Sidney Crosby missing another game with post-concussion symptoms. Crosby is the latest in the Next Gretzky lineup of players the NHL has desperately wanted - but unlike his predecessors, Crosby has been the real deal.
^ Howard has quietly solidified the Wings perennial goaltender question. Seems like he's come out of nowhere, and with the young core of players, the Wings have a solid foundation for years to come. Gone are the days of revolving re-treads (Hasek, CuJo) or reaching for the next big thing (Vernon, Essensa).
Just 24, Crosby has already led his Penguins to two Cup Finals, winning one. He also is partly responsible for the Penguins even being in Pittsburgh at this point. But he has also missed the better part of a season after suffering concussions, and now he's out again.
The speed and violence of hockey and football are what draw people to watch. That such huge athletes can make so many amazing things happen never ceases to amaze me. But I am even more amazed that there are not career threatening injuries every single game, let alone every single play. I don't know the solution - some say tighter helmet straps could help - but these guys are putting their lives on the line every time they go out on the court/field. I am not calling them heroes, but they are doing things that could result in a drastic change in their lifestyle at any moment. So when everyone cries about overpaid athletes, keep that in mind.^
^ Granted, people like teachers, firefighters, policemen, armed service members, and probably countless I am not thinking of, should all be paid more, and athletes paid less - but athletes put more on the line than we sometimes give them credit for.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Shadow Sports
I was reading Joe Posnanski's latest article (which is good, as always) and something struck me. Ever since he came out with his Jerry Sandusky initial reaction and Joe Paterno commentary I've felt different about Joe Pos. His Paterno take was completely sensical - Paterno led a complete life, this one incident is one thing among many, don't rush to judgment, etc. - but it left me dissatisfied. And everything I have read from him since then has been a shadow of his former work. Not that the quality is diminished - but its effect on me certainly has. I am reading his words through the shadow that has been cast by his opinions about the Penn State saga.
And that helped me realize my problem with hockey. I have always been a Red Wings fan. While the Tigers were struggling, Detroit became Hockey Town. My room was plastered with Wings posters, replicas of the Detroit News and Free Press front page spreads showing Steve Yzerman hoisting the Stanley Cup. I can still his his toothless grin, the embodiment of joy and accomplishment...but since the 2004-05 season was lost to the lockout, nothing has been the same. The Wings have won the Stanley Cup since then, and have always been at or near the top the league - so it isn't from lack of success. I did move across country, so that surely has something to do with it, but more to the point - the sport as a whole is a shadow of its former self. Losing an entire season^ made it like a whole new sport once it returned. The players changed, the economics changed, everything changed. And there just wasn't any room for a whole new NHL.
^ And what about the THREE seasons lost due to the Rich Rod experiment in Ann Arbor? I was not a faithful UM follower toward the end of the RR era, and I am just now starting to get back on board. And I did not miss a game for close to a decade, either sitting in the student section or watching as each game was televised nationally every week.
This shadow-NHL is changing again, drastically realigning the divisions. I hope they bring back the old-school division names^ - Norris, Adams, Patrick, Smythe - but that would just be a novelty to me. I don't know when the shadow will lift, but for now, it has me viewing hockey from afar.
^ Anything but Leaders and Legends. Please.
I see that same shadow falling on the NBA now. The Pistons are making moves, the league landscape is changing, and when basketball starts again, it will be hard to remember last season. Sports are a welcome distraction from the daily grind and common bond between fellow fans throughout the world - but when the shifting sports landscape is distracting in itself, and the common bond is broken because the team you once knew is unrecognizable...that is when the shadow has fallen, and that sport threatens to fade into obscurity.
And that helped me realize my problem with hockey. I have always been a Red Wings fan. While the Tigers were struggling, Detroit became Hockey Town. My room was plastered with Wings posters, replicas of the Detroit News and Free Press front page spreads showing Steve Yzerman hoisting the Stanley Cup. I can still his his toothless grin, the embodiment of joy and accomplishment...but since the 2004-05 season was lost to the lockout, nothing has been the same. The Wings have won the Stanley Cup since then, and have always been at or near the top the league - so it isn't from lack of success. I did move across country, so that surely has something to do with it, but more to the point - the sport as a whole is a shadow of its former self. Losing an entire season^ made it like a whole new sport once it returned. The players changed, the economics changed, everything changed. And there just wasn't any room for a whole new NHL.
^ And what about the THREE seasons lost due to the Rich Rod experiment in Ann Arbor? I was not a faithful UM follower toward the end of the RR era, and I am just now starting to get back on board. And I did not miss a game for close to a decade, either sitting in the student section or watching as each game was televised nationally every week.
This shadow-NHL is changing again, drastically realigning the divisions. I hope they bring back the old-school division names^ - Norris, Adams, Patrick, Smythe - but that would just be a novelty to me. I don't know when the shadow will lift, but for now, it has me viewing hockey from afar.
^ Anything but Leaders and Legends. Please.
I see that same shadow falling on the NBA now. The Pistons are making moves, the league landscape is changing, and when basketball starts again, it will be hard to remember last season. Sports are a welcome distraction from the daily grind and common bond between fellow fans throughout the world - but when the shifting sports landscape is distracting in itself, and the common bond is broken because the team you once knew is unrecognizable...that is when the shadow has fallen, and that sport threatens to fade into obscurity.
Lions-Vikings postmortem
Well that was exciting. Joe Webb, best known for his unique Fantasy Football position eligibility, decided to teach the lackadaisical Lions defense a lesson. And who knows -in a league where Tyler Palko, T.J. Yates, and Matt Moore are all starting, Joe Webb might have a future as a backup or slash-guy, ala Antwaan Randle El or Brad Smith. But he is not someone who should be torching the Lions to the tune of 12/23 for 84 yards and a TD passing (that sounds very Joe Webb-like) and 109 rushing yards on SEVEN carries for a TD (that sounds very Adrian Peterson-like). The Lions were missing several people from the defense, but there are no excuses for this performance. More duds like this against a sneaky Oakland team and a surging Chargers team will lead to an 8-8 season and missing the playoffs - and more choruses of "Same old Lions."
On the bright side, there were no stupid penalties and the offense started strong. The D did have a couple touchdowns, so it might seem overly critical to blame the defense, but in reality, Minnesota should have won the game at the end. Let's all just hope this is the start of some new luck and there is enough momentum to carry into the playoffs...
On the bright side, there were no stupid penalties and the offense started strong. The D did have a couple touchdowns, so it might seem overly critical to blame the defense, but in reality, Minnesota should have won the game at the end. Let's all just hope this is the start of some new luck and there is enough momentum to carry into the playoffs...
Friday, December 9, 2011
Hamburgler Sighted in Kansas, and David Stern flinches
Today was slow on the Detroit sports front. The Tigers swapped out one youngish right-handed reliever for another. Can you believe that a couple years after being part of a Roy Halladay trade that never happened, Ryan Perry is only good enough to get an out-of-options middle reliever? Hindsight being what it is, it seems pretty clear that a Porcello-Perry-Casey Crosby package for Roy Halladay would have been a steal for Detroit. Ugh.
In news local to me, I tuned into what passes for comedy radio on the way home tonight - the Charlie Weis introductory press conference at Kansas!^ At least they can break out their old t-shirts from the Mark Mangino era. But really, this is probably a good move for everyone involved. Best case scenario for everyone - Weis is really successful and that catapults him to a better job. If he falls on his face and KU performs like KU, he'll be gone soon anyway. My prediction - he'll bring KU back to respectability and will land an NFL gig in three or four years.
^Not quitting my day job...or my night job...
In NBA news, the Hornets, Lakers, and Rockets swung a trade that would have landed Chris Paul in L.A. Problem is, Commissioner David Stern vetoed the deal. The deal might be back on but the fact that the veto happened at all is troubling. The NBA itself owns the Hornets, so that is how the commissioner had any say in the trade. Having a team owned by, essentially, each of the other teams in the league leads to conflicts of interest such as this. Dan Gilbert, fresh off of his LeBron Comic Sans screed, kept the hits coming with a few choice words about the Chris Paul trade^.
^No word on the font used in the email. Vegas has Calibri as an early favorite at 1 to 2, but Comic Sans is worth a flier at 4 to 1.
I doubt he would have been voicing any concerns if Paul ended up on the Cavs, or even if the Cavs facilitated the Paul trade.^ But since someone else profited, he stomped his feet and got Daddy to take away his brother's toy. What a joke. Once again, the conflict of interest when a league owns one of its teams is unavoidable. The MLB did the same thing when they jerked around the Expos for a couple years.
^Not that anyone would want the pu pu platter the Cavs would have to offer up in a trade.
The best thing that could happen to the Hornets is a sale so someone with the team's best interests in mind can start making decisions. And with a Paul trade, all accounts are that the team itself would be improved, and a better team is always a better asset.^
^Unless you're the Clippers.
Now that David Stern has allowed the teams to try the trade again, it will be interesting to see what a new deal looks like. If the same deal goes through, the NBA will be admitting they were wrong to veto the trade in the first place. I am guessing there is some nominal change - the Lakers giving up a second round pick or something - just so David Stern can save face.
In news local to me, I tuned into what passes for comedy radio on the way home tonight - the Charlie Weis introductory press conference at Kansas!^ At least they can break out their old t-shirts from the Mark Mangino era. But really, this is probably a good move for everyone involved. Best case scenario for everyone - Weis is really successful and that catapults him to a better job. If he falls on his face and KU performs like KU, he'll be gone soon anyway. My prediction - he'll bring KU back to respectability and will land an NFL gig in three or four years.
^Not quitting my day job...or my night job...
In NBA news, the Hornets, Lakers, and Rockets swung a trade that would have landed Chris Paul in L.A. Problem is, Commissioner David Stern vetoed the deal. The deal might be back on but the fact that the veto happened at all is troubling. The NBA itself owns the Hornets, so that is how the commissioner had any say in the trade. Having a team owned by, essentially, each of the other teams in the league leads to conflicts of interest such as this. Dan Gilbert, fresh off of his LeBron Comic Sans screed, kept the hits coming with a few choice words about the Chris Paul trade^.
^No word on the font used in the email. Vegas has Calibri as an early favorite at 1 to 2, but Comic Sans is worth a flier at 4 to 1.
I doubt he would have been voicing any concerns if Paul ended up on the Cavs, or even if the Cavs facilitated the Paul trade.^ But since someone else profited, he stomped his feet and got Daddy to take away his brother's toy. What a joke. Once again, the conflict of interest when a league owns one of its teams is unavoidable. The MLB did the same thing when they jerked around the Expos for a couple years.
^Not that anyone would want the pu pu platter the Cavs would have to offer up in a trade.
The best thing that could happen to the Hornets is a sale so someone with the team's best interests in mind can start making decisions. And with a Paul trade, all accounts are that the team itself would be improved, and a better team is always a better asset.^
^Unless you're the Clippers.
Now that David Stern has allowed the teams to try the trade again, it will be interesting to see what a new deal looks like. If the same deal goes through, the NBA will be admitting they were wrong to veto the trade in the first place. I am guessing there is some nominal change - the Lakers giving up a second round pick or something - just so David Stern can save face.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Today in Detroit Sports - 12/8/11
I'm going to try to sum up the Detroit-centric sports landscape every day. Let's see how it goes...
- Wings - game tonight, 7:30 vs Phoenix. This starts the home stand that has been marketed as "The once and future Jets" series^, with the Old Jets playing tonight and the New Jets coming to The Joe on Saturday. The Wings are an up and down team, streaking to several wins in a row, then a few losses. Wash, rinse, repeat. Following two losses, this feels like a W to me.
- Tigers - the huge news out of the Baseball Winter Meetings today was the Tigers signing of Octavio Dotel! That immediately makes them the favorite in the AL and it would be a huge upset for anyone else to reach the world series from the Junior Circuit. Of course, the Angels made a couple of smaller moves, signing a fourth starter and adding depth at first base. Coupled with the move of the Astros to the AL West, the Angels and Rangers will be near locks for 90 wins a year for the next few years. With an extra wild card team, though, the Tigers situation is still the same - win the AL Central if you want to make the playoffs. I still see the Tigers making another move or two this winter, maybe the Cuban Centipede or a 2B.
- Pistons - welcome back, Tayshaun Prince! 4 years, $30M or so. In other words, business as usual. I will admit, the Pistons have been on the far back burner for me the last few years, and this doesn't help. Brandon Knight should be an exciting rookie, but this move will only weigh down the team and inhibit their future moves. How can the owners blame their losses on anyone but themselves?!
- Lions - Suh is out, Jared Allen rips the city, two Lions have torn ligaments...thankfully this is a bye week. Oh sure, some people in Vikings uniforms will be running around Ford Field on Sunday, but I think it's just a scrimmage.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Tigers Hot Stove - 12/7 Update
No news is...no news. There are some fires in the iron though:
- Yoenis Cespedes - whose name is a little too close to Yunieski Betancourt for my tastes - is on the Tiger's radar. Dombrowski visited with him in the Dominican Republic^. All I know is that I won't learn to spell his name unless he signs with us. Till then, Cespedes is Spanish for Copy/Paste.
^ When reached for comment, Jim Price said, "Nice area."
- Gio Gonzalez's name has been thrown around. He would be a huge addition. The way I see it, if Jacob Turner turns out to be a stud, Gonzalez is basically Turner in two years (plus left-handed). Those two years would be the cheapest in Turner's career, but with the new super-two rules, he is more likely to be a super-two, which means, more expensive. If Turner is in line for Gonzalez's arbitration pay schedule in two years, that would be the best case scenario. So making the trade for Gio is like fast-forwarding Turner's development two years. Sounds like a good deal to me. Of course, the A's are asking for more (reportedly Nick Castellanos, Brennan Boesch, Gene Lamont, 2 packs a day from Leyland, and that singing hot dog vendor dude). I wouldn't want to trade Boesch, especially if the plan is to flip Delmon Young for anything (hopefully Martin Prado from the Braves), but I'd drop Castellanos and some other middling prospect with Turner to get Gonzalez. Making that move would put us even further ahead in the division race. If Gonzalez goes elsewhere outside of the division, no biggie - but if the Royals manage to trade for him (and they have a much better stable of prospects than the Tigers), the gap between Us and Them in the division gets a lot smaller, and the reliance on Turner or Oliver or anyone else to step up as a fifth starter becomes that much more important.
Well, that year went by fast
Forgive me, Internet, for I have sinned. It's been over a year since my last post. What has happened? Let's recap!
- The Tigers went to the ALCS. Nicely done.
- The Wings went to the playoffs. Since they didn't win the Cup, I don't remember how far they went.
- The Pistons were horrible. Then they almost canceled the NBA season. Then they decided to play after all.
- The Lions started hot, stumbled, and are now clinging to a playoff spot. Thankfully every other team is doing its best to crap the bed, so the Lions just have to stop stomping people and they will make it in.
- Michigan had a surprisingly good first season under Brady Hoke.
- Michigan State had an even better season. Of course UM went to a better bowl game, which makes sense in this Bowl $ystem.^
^See what I did there?
I hope to post some insights about our beloved Detroit teams on a semi-regular basis. So...see you in a year or two!
- The Tigers went to the ALCS. Nicely done.
- The Wings went to the playoffs. Since they didn't win the Cup, I don't remember how far they went.
- The Pistons were horrible. Then they almost canceled the NBA season. Then they decided to play after all.
- The Lions started hot, stumbled, and are now clinging to a playoff spot. Thankfully every other team is doing its best to crap the bed, so the Lions just have to stop stomping people and they will make it in.
- Michigan had a surprisingly good first season under Brady Hoke.
- Michigan State had an even better season. Of course UM went to a better bowl game, which makes sense in this Bowl $ystem.^
^See what I did there?
I hope to post some insights about our beloved Detroit teams on a semi-regular basis. So...see you in a year or two!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
It's never too early to look at next year
Well, two heart- and back-breaking losses to the Twins later, and all of a sudden the Tigers are scouting outfielders and shortstops, not opponents. It was an exciting year, especially the first half, but turn off the lights, this show is over.
Now, on to next year. What holes do the Tigers have to fill? Here is the status of the current team:
C - Gerald Laird - free agent; no hit catcher; Tigers need fewer no-hit players in their lineup (seems obvious)
C - Alex Avila - showed some promise; his defense improved, and his bat regressed
1B - Miguel Cabrera - not going anywhere
2B - Carlos Guillen - under contract for 2011; broken
2B - Will Rhymes - showing promise; another Boesch, or is it sustainable?
SS - Jhonny Peralta - free agent after buyout; misspells first name; not ideal but decent option if cheap
2B/SS - Ramon Santiago - like him as a utility guy
3B - Brandon Inge - free agent; no power or average this year; nice guy, I've heard; not ideal
OF - Brennan Boesch - pencil him into right field and hope for the best
OF - Austin Jackson - the real deal; not as much power as Granderson but better average, speed, and defense
OF - Ryan Raburn - showed some promise recently; perfect fourth outfielder/super utility
OF - Johnny Damon - full time DH now; power is gone; likes Detroit, or at least likes Mike Illitch's money
OF - Don Kelly - decent utility guy, nothing more
OF - Casper Wells - showed some promise after his callup; named after ghost
OF - Magglio Ordonez - free agent after option is declined; lineup was much better with him than without
SP - Justin Verlander - not going anywhere
SP - Max Scherzer - not going anywhere
SP - Rick Porcello - not going anywhere
SP - Armando Galarraga - shockingly, very solid recently; I wouldn't hate him as our fifth starter
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - free agent; good come back year; discussed retiring
RP - Jose Valverde - really fell off after the All Star break; I am hoping he is injured to explain the falloff
RP - Joel Zumaya - his injury really messed up the pen (common story); can we hope for another comeback?
RP - Phil Coke - pretty good this year; moving him to the starting rotation should be considered
RP - Ryan Perry - mediocre this year; need improvement for next year
RP - Eddie Bonine - decent long reliever; can give or take him
RP - Brad Thomas - decent as a LOOGY
RP - Daniel Schlereth - potential as a closer if he improves command
RP - Alfredo Figaro - can give or take him
RP - Robbie Weinhardt - showed signs of being competent
Minors
2B/SS - Danny Worth - eh
2B - Scott Sizemore - eh++
SP - Andy Oliver - he could make the team out of spring training next year if he puts it all together
SP - Jacob Turner - young and raw, but so was Porcello last year; could be a surprise in the spring, but probably looking at 2012
Salary obligations for 2011 - $55M (compared to $133M in 2010)
So...how would you spend someone else's $80 million? Even if the fat is trimmed and there is just $50 million to spend, there is a lot of impact that can be found. Let's see what we can do...(the percentages I list are not the chance they WILL sign them, but the chances Detroit will be on the list of teams the players decide between)
#1 - Carl Crawford, LF, 29 years old on opening day (he seems younger)
Comparable player(s) - Ichiro (5 yrs, $80M), Jason Bay (4 yrs, $66M)
Analysis - Crawford has a rare combination of speed and power and is the class of this free agent...class, at least for the outfield. Not as high of an average guy like Ichiro, and doesn't have the power that Bay displayed before he showed up in NY.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 6 yrs, $90M
What the Yankees will pay - 8 yrs, $140M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 35%
#2 - Adam Dunn, LF/1B/DH, 31 years old on opening day (I thought he was older)
Comparable players(s) - Adrian Gonzalez (4 yrs, $9.5M - yikes! How cheap is that?!), Ryan Howard (5 yrs, $125M - yikes! How expensive is that?!)
Analysis - Dunn is the premier power hitter and OBP guy this year. Lower average than Gonzo, less power than Ryno. If the Nationals don't re-sign him, there will be teams lining up. I read somewhere that he doesn't want to be a pure DH, but signing those big checks will soften the blow.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $60M
What the Yankees will pay - 4 yrs, $75M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 65%
Note - both Crawford and Dunn have the same agent, some dude named Brian Peters. Two thoughts:
A) lucky guy this year. His family will get some nice Christmas presents. iPads all around!
B) group discount? Doubtful. But, if the Tigers are in talks with one and don't make it happen, it could make a good impression with the agent and help negotiations with the other.
#3 - Adrian Beltre, 3B, 32 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Chone Figgins (4 yrs, $36M) (this works on two levels - in a contract year, Beltre plays hard and does well - like Figgins...after signing a huge contract, Beltre sucks again - like Figgins!)
Analysis - since Beltre is the ultimate walk-year performer, I'd love to see him stay on one-year contracts, but that probably won't happen. He has nothing left to prove to get his next big deal, and Scott Boras is his agent.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $40M
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $60M (Even the gluttonous evil empire won't go after him though, right? The only way it would happen is if Jeter walks, A-Rod moves to SS, and they bring in Beltre, which would make real baseball sense. But since the Yankees don't play real baseball, they just play fantasy baseball for real results, that probably won't happen.)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 80%, but probably closer to the going Yankees rate than the normal rate due to the Boras-Illitch relationship.
#4 - Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, 35 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Justin Morneau (6 yrs, $80M)
Analysis - Konerko has had a great free agent year, but he's the oldest guy we've considered so far. He is an ideal candidate to move to DH, as his defense at first base has gotten worse to the point of being awful this year (according to my first ever search for a player's UZR).
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $33M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 60%
#5 - Alex Gonzalez, SS, 34 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - ironically, Jhonny Peralta (5 yrs, $13M, but that is cheap)
Analysis - Gonzalez has some decent power, middling average, poor OBP...basically the same as Peralta, just six years older. Gonzalez is above average on defense, while Peralta is slightly below average to awful on defense, depending on whether he plays SS or 3B. Given that Peralta is younger, you'd think I'd prefer him...not so fast, my friend^. Gonzalez's advanced age would lend him to a one-year deal, which, given the lack of faith in this year's SS crop, I'm all in favor of.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 1 yr, $3.5M (he signed a one year $2.75M deal last year, and he deserves a raise)
What the Yankees would pay - 2 yrs, $5M (and he could go to NY as a utility player, who knows)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 70%
^ I'm talking to you, Andy, aka, my readership.
#6 - John Buck, C, a young 30 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Jason Varitek (1 yr, $5M - a contract that is the result of probably Scott Boras's worst failure - turning down arbitration for Varitek when he could have make closer to $10M...oops)
Analysis - Buck has had a great year, considering he was just kicked to the curb by Kansas City for Jason Kendall. Not Dayton Moore's proudest moment I'm sure.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $5M (he signed for 1 yr $2M last year, like Gonzalez, with Toronto - Alex Papadapolis^ has had a great first year as GM) - I'd even say a team wouldn't be too out of whack to go 3 yrs $9M for Buck, but a long term commitment to a catcher is tough to do
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $12M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 90%
^ I know his last name is Anthopolous, but I also know Webster is underrated and any search for George and M'am's last name will now hit this blog. So I've got that going for me.
#7 - Scott Downs, RP, 35 on opening day (didn't think he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Brandon Lyon (3 yrs, $15M - an overpayment for sure)
Analysis - Toronto wouldn't trade Downs, so I assume they will offer arbitration, meaning Downs will get a raise on his $4M this year. But I think he can get a two year deal at least, so the team that signs him after declining will give up a pick. If the Tigers get a bunch of type-A free agents, though, only the best one will take the first round pick, so it is not that bad.^
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $6M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $11M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 40%
^ If you look at it that way, it's best to load up on the type-A free agents every so often so you don't lose your first round pick every single year.
#8 - Carl Pavano 2.0, SP, 35 on opening day (I think I knew he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Andy Pettitte (1 yr, $11.75M), Carl Pavano 1.0 (4 yrs, $39.95M)
Analysis - Look, I hate this guy when he pitches against the Tigers. His WAR is between 3 and 4, but when you factor in he wins EVERY SINGLE GAME against the Tigers, and that he inevitably pitches against Detroit EVERY SINGLE SERIES his team faces Detroit, his WAR turns into about 20 or 30 if he plays on the Tigers. It's just science.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay him - 4 yrs, $39.94M (They'll be DAMNED if they pay as much for him this time around!)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 25% (wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota offer arbitration and for him to accept)
So there you have it. If the Tigers somehow signed everyone I listed for the non-Yankees rate, it would be a $69M commitment. I think that would be very reasonable for revamping 8 positions on the roster. What I do not want to see is the same amount spent on the likes of Bonderman, Damon, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge^. If the Tigers can pick up even two of these guys, they will be a better team next year. The unknowns of Boesch and Rymes and, to a lesser extent, Avila need to be figured out. Do the Tigers need to fill those holes too? I would like to see those three guys play every day from here on out as a pre-Spring training. If Boesch can pull himself out of his slump, maybe even have him play winter ball, then he could be a corner stone for the future. If not...Detroit might have to go to Yankees territory to sign someone out of desperation.
^ I wouldn't mind having some of those guys back, but not if no one else of importance is signed. It is clear that this team, as constructed, won't win the division, so changes have to be made. Trading Granderson last offseason was tough, but it improved the team on different levels and made them younger and better positioned for the long haul. Replacing Inge and Bonderman can accomplish the same thing. Magglio is the one player I'd most want to return, but at a discount - 2 yrs, $10M could do it.
Now, on to next year. What holes do the Tigers have to fill? Here is the status of the current team:
C - Gerald Laird - free agent; no hit catcher; Tigers need fewer no-hit players in their lineup (seems obvious)
C - Alex Avila - showed some promise; his defense improved, and his bat regressed
1B - Miguel Cabrera - not going anywhere
2B - Carlos Guillen - under contract for 2011; broken
2B - Will Rhymes - showing promise; another Boesch, or is it sustainable?
SS - Jhonny Peralta - free agent after buyout; misspells first name; not ideal but decent option if cheap
2B/SS - Ramon Santiago - like him as a utility guy
3B - Brandon Inge - free agent; no power or average this year; nice guy, I've heard; not ideal
OF - Brennan Boesch - pencil him into right field and hope for the best
OF - Austin Jackson - the real deal; not as much power as Granderson but better average, speed, and defense
OF - Ryan Raburn - showed some promise recently; perfect fourth outfielder/super utility
OF - Johnny Damon - full time DH now; power is gone; likes Detroit, or at least likes Mike Illitch's money
OF - Don Kelly - decent utility guy, nothing more
OF - Casper Wells - showed some promise after his callup; named after ghost
OF - Magglio Ordonez - free agent after option is declined; lineup was much better with him than without
SP - Justin Verlander - not going anywhere
SP - Max Scherzer - not going anywhere
SP - Rick Porcello - not going anywhere
SP - Armando Galarraga - shockingly, very solid recently; I wouldn't hate him as our fifth starter
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - free agent; good come back year; discussed retiring
RP - Jose Valverde - really fell off after the All Star break; I am hoping he is injured to explain the falloff
RP - Joel Zumaya - his injury really messed up the pen (common story); can we hope for another comeback?
RP - Phil Coke - pretty good this year; moving him to the starting rotation should be considered
RP - Ryan Perry - mediocre this year; need improvement for next year
RP - Eddie Bonine - decent long reliever; can give or take him
RP - Brad Thomas - decent as a LOOGY
RP - Daniel Schlereth - potential as a closer if he improves command
RP - Alfredo Figaro - can give or take him
RP - Robbie Weinhardt - showed signs of being competent
Minors
2B/SS - Danny Worth - eh
2B - Scott Sizemore - eh++
SP - Andy Oliver - he could make the team out of spring training next year if he puts it all together
SP - Jacob Turner - young and raw, but so was Porcello last year; could be a surprise in the spring, but probably looking at 2012
Salary obligations for 2011 - $55M (compared to $133M in 2010)
So...how would you spend someone else's $80 million? Even if the fat is trimmed and there is just $50 million to spend, there is a lot of impact that can be found. Let's see what we can do...(the percentages I list are not the chance they WILL sign them, but the chances Detroit will be on the list of teams the players decide between)
#1 - Carl Crawford, LF, 29 years old on opening day (he seems younger)
Comparable player(s) - Ichiro (5 yrs, $80M), Jason Bay (4 yrs, $66M)
Analysis - Crawford has a rare combination of speed and power and is the class of this free agent...class, at least for the outfield. Not as high of an average guy like Ichiro, and doesn't have the power that Bay displayed before he showed up in NY.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 6 yrs, $90M
What the Yankees will pay - 8 yrs, $140M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 35%
#2 - Adam Dunn, LF/1B/DH, 31 years old on opening day (I thought he was older)
Comparable players(s) - Adrian Gonzalez (4 yrs, $9.5M - yikes! How cheap is that?!), Ryan Howard (5 yrs, $125M - yikes! How expensive is that?!)
Analysis - Dunn is the premier power hitter and OBP guy this year. Lower average than Gonzo, less power than Ryno. If the Nationals don't re-sign him, there will be teams lining up. I read somewhere that he doesn't want to be a pure DH, but signing those big checks will soften the blow.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $60M
What the Yankees will pay - 4 yrs, $75M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 65%
Note - both Crawford and Dunn have the same agent, some dude named Brian Peters. Two thoughts:
A) lucky guy this year. His family will get some nice Christmas presents. iPads all around!
B) group discount? Doubtful. But, if the Tigers are in talks with one and don't make it happen, it could make a good impression with the agent and help negotiations with the other.
#3 - Adrian Beltre, 3B, 32 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Chone Figgins (4 yrs, $36M) (this works on two levels - in a contract year, Beltre plays hard and does well - like Figgins...after signing a huge contract, Beltre sucks again - like Figgins!)
Analysis - since Beltre is the ultimate walk-year performer, I'd love to see him stay on one-year contracts, but that probably won't happen. He has nothing left to prove to get his next big deal, and Scott Boras is his agent.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 4 yrs, $40M
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $60M (Even the gluttonous evil empire won't go after him though, right? The only way it would happen is if Jeter walks, A-Rod moves to SS, and they bring in Beltre, which would make real baseball sense. But since the Yankees don't play real baseball, they just play fantasy baseball for real results, that probably won't happen.)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 80%, but probably closer to the going Yankees rate than the normal rate due to the Boras-Illitch relationship.
#4 - Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, 35 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Justin Morneau (6 yrs, $80M)
Analysis - Konerko has had a great free agent year, but he's the oldest guy we've considered so far. He is an ideal candidate to move to DH, as his defense at first base has gotten worse to the point of being awful this year (according to my first ever search for a player's UZR).
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $33M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 60%
#5 - Alex Gonzalez, SS, 34 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - ironically, Jhonny Peralta (5 yrs, $13M, but that is cheap)
Analysis - Gonzalez has some decent power, middling average, poor OBP...basically the same as Peralta, just six years older. Gonzalez is above average on defense, while Peralta is slightly below average to awful on defense, depending on whether he plays SS or 3B. Given that Peralta is younger, you'd think I'd prefer him...not so fast, my friend^. Gonzalez's advanced age would lend him to a one-year deal, which, given the lack of faith in this year's SS crop, I'm all in favor of.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 1 yr, $3.5M (he signed a one year $2.75M deal last year, and he deserves a raise)
What the Yankees would pay - 2 yrs, $5M (and he could go to NY as a utility player, who knows)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 70%
^ I'm talking to you, Andy, aka, my readership.
#6 - John Buck, C, a young 30 on opening day
Comparable player(s) - Jason Varitek (1 yr, $5M - a contract that is the result of probably Scott Boras's worst failure - turning down arbitration for Varitek when he could have make closer to $10M...oops)
Analysis - Buck has had a great year, considering he was just kicked to the curb by Kansas City for Jason Kendall. Not Dayton Moore's proudest moment I'm sure.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $5M (he signed for 1 yr $2M last year, like Gonzalez, with Toronto - Alex Papadapolis^ has had a great first year as GM) - I'd even say a team wouldn't be too out of whack to go 3 yrs $9M for Buck, but a long term commitment to a catcher is tough to do
What the Yankees would pay - 4 yrs, $12M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 90%
^ I know his last name is Anthopolous, but I also know Webster is underrated and any search for George and M'am's last name will now hit this blog. So I've got that going for me.
#7 - Scott Downs, RP, 35 on opening day (didn't think he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Brandon Lyon (3 yrs, $15M - an overpayment for sure)
Analysis - Toronto wouldn't trade Downs, so I assume they will offer arbitration, meaning Downs will get a raise on his $4M this year. But I think he can get a two year deal at least, so the team that signs him after declining will give up a pick. If the Tigers get a bunch of type-A free agents, though, only the best one will take the first round pick, so it is not that bad.^
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $6M
What the Yankees will pay - 3 yrs, $11M
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 40%
^ If you look at it that way, it's best to load up on the type-A free agents every so often so you don't lose your first round pick every single year.
#8 - Carl Pavano 2.0, SP, 35 on opening day (I think I knew he was this old)
Comparable player(s) - Andy Pettitte (1 yr, $11.75M), Carl Pavano 1.0 (4 yrs, $39.95M)
Analysis - Look, I hate this guy when he pitches against the Tigers. His WAR is between 3 and 4, but when you factor in he wins EVERY SINGLE GAME against the Tigers, and that he inevitably pitches against Detroit EVERY SINGLE SERIES his team faces Detroit, his WAR turns into about 20 or 30 if he plays on the Tigers. It's just science.
What it would take a normal team to sign him - 2 yrs, $20M
What the Yankees will pay him - 4 yrs, $39.94M (They'll be DAMNED if they pay as much for him this time around!)
Chances the Tigers can sign him - 25% (wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota offer arbitration and for him to accept)
So there you have it. If the Tigers somehow signed everyone I listed for the non-Yankees rate, it would be a $69M commitment. I think that would be very reasonable for revamping 8 positions on the roster. What I do not want to see is the same amount spent on the likes of Bonderman, Damon, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge^. If the Tigers can pick up even two of these guys, they will be a better team next year. The unknowns of Boesch and Rymes and, to a lesser extent, Avila need to be figured out. Do the Tigers need to fill those holes too? I would like to see those three guys play every day from here on out as a pre-Spring training. If Boesch can pull himself out of his slump, maybe even have him play winter ball, then he could be a corner stone for the future. If not...Detroit might have to go to Yankees territory to sign someone out of desperation.
^ I wouldn't mind having some of those guys back, but not if no one else of importance is signed. It is clear that this team, as constructed, won't win the division, so changes have to be made. Trading Granderson last offseason was tough, but it improved the team on different levels and made them younger and better positioned for the long haul. Replacing Inge and Bonderman can accomplish the same thing. Magglio is the one player I'd most want to return, but at a discount - 2 yrs, $10M could do it.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Updating the 'race'
It's been a few games since I laid out what the Tigers (and Twins/Sox) had to do in order for Detroit to have a real chance to make the playoffs. Let's see how it has gone so far:
So not too bad, but not all that good either. The Twins managed to beat Cliff Lee and take 2/3 from the Mariners. Chicago took one from the Yankees. The Tigers lost two heart breakers to the Blue Jays, getting the winning or tying runs on base in the ninth inning or later, only to fall a little short. Those two games were sandwiched between two quality wins. I heard earlier this week that the schedule has worked out that Verlander and Scherzer will both pitch in all four series against Chicago and Minnesota down the stretch, so there is that.
Twins-Tigers for three games starting tonight. Win tonight's game and we'll go from there.
| Tigers | |
|---|---|
| Record Needed | 3-1 |
| Record Since Prediction | 2-2 |
| +/- | -1 |
| Twins | |
| Record Needed | 1-3 |
| Record Since Prediction | 3-1 |
| +/- | +2 |
| White Sox | |
| Record Needed | 2-3 |
| Record Since Prediction | 3-2 |
| +/- | +1 |
So not too bad, but not all that good either. The Twins managed to beat Cliff Lee and take 2/3 from the Mariners. Chicago took one from the Yankees. The Tigers lost two heart breakers to the Blue Jays, getting the winning or tying runs on base in the ninth inning or later, only to fall a little short. Those two games were sandwiched between two quality wins. I heard earlier this week that the schedule has worked out that Verlander and Scherzer will both pitch in all four series against Chicago and Minnesota down the stretch, so there is that.
Twins-Tigers for three games starting tonight. Win tonight's game and we'll go from there.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Ssshhh, don't look now^!
^ I started formulating this post a couple days ago, but then I thought, I'll give the Tigers another day to keep the momentum going...then yesterday, up 3-0 on the lowly Royals, I got greedy and wanted to wait out a win and, hopefully, Twins and White Sox losses. Valverde's non-biting (gumming?) splitter, and a Willie Bloomquist homer later, and the win was gone. It was still a five game win streak, so I'm going for it.
So, I said a 5 game win streak and 10 of 12 would bring me back...after the first two wins vs. KC, the streak was at 5 and 8 of 11, so that is close enough. Of course, the Twins are winning at a .987 rate or thereabouts, so this might all be moot. But there is a glimmer...faint, but it's there. So I might as well break down the rest of the year while the Tigers chances are still slim.
Who will decide the Central division this year? Aside from the obvious three teams - Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota - we have the other Central teams (KC and Cleveland), which everyone would expect. The three contenders (and I'll continue to refer to Detroit as a contender for the purposes of this post, no need to point out their chances of making the playoffs are barely over half of one percent) play each other a total of 32 times. The other two Central teams are played a total of 30 times. The list of shared opponents - Toronto and Baltimore (8), Texas (6), and Oakland (6). Those are the facts.
The Dream Sequence, wherein the author outlines what it would take for the Tigers to make up a 9 game deficit with 35 games to play.
Detroit plays both teams ahead of them two series apiece, 13 games total, one home and one away. Sweeps are needed at home, and 2/3 on the road. This is possible - the Tigers took 2 of 3 from the White Sox earlier this month. The Tigers also play Toronto for 4. The Tigers split a series with the Jays in July, but that included a split of a double header. Without that, could have been 3 of 4. Let's plan on 3 of 4 again. Six games with the Royals. Without a bullpen meltdown, the Royals would have been swept this week, so 5 of 6 is not out of the question, and a pair of sweeps is certainly attainable. Two against Texas - they are playing well, a split is probably the best case scenario. Three against Cleveland - they've packed it in for the year, this is a sweep. Finally, seven games against Baltimore. This team has shown a lot of life since Buck Showalter arrived, and they've played the White Sox tough this week. That being said, their starting pitching is shaky, their lineup is lacking, and they have no true closer. This needs to be 5 of 7 at the very least.
By my tally, it is 11-2 against Minnesota and Chicago, 3-1 against Toronto, 5-1 against KC, 1-1 against Texas, 3-0 against Cleveland, and 5-2 against Baltimore. That is 28-7. We've seen this before from the Colorado Rockies. It is doable. That whole, one game at a time mantra. One series at a time. (Except, every game, every series, the whole year is on the line.)
Of course, even with that record, the Twins and White Sox have to lose some games. In addition to being 9 back of Minnesota, Detroit is 5.5 back of Chicago. What will the Twins do down the stretch? Four against Texas - they are struggling against the Rangers at the moment. Let's say 1-3. Three against Seattle, starting with a road game the night after another night game on the road at Texas. They lose the first game in the series and another one, 1-2. I've already detailed the 1-5 record against Detroit. Six against KC - 4-2. Six against Cleveland - 5-1 at least I am sure. White Sox - 1-2. Oakland - 2-1. Toronto - 3-1. That brings the total to 18-17. I promise - Scout's honor - I did the series by series record without adding it up along the way, so the fact that this results in the Tigers beating Minnesota by a game...just coincidence.
Chicago? They'll beat Baltimore tonight, 1-0. Yankees - 0-3, I think the Yankees sweep. Cleveland - 4-2. Boston - tough one to gauge...two series, seven games...I'll split down the middle, 3-4 record for Chicago. 1-6 against Detroit. 2-1 against Minnesota. 2-1 against KC. 2-1 against Oakland. 1-2 against the Angels. Grand total - 16-20. Tigers easily eclipse the Sox.
The Reality Sequence, wherein the author takes a more realistic and comprehensive approach to the rest of the year.
I have conveniently left out the home/road splits in the remaining schedule. The Tigers have 13 home games, 22 on the road. The Twins - 19 and 16. The Sox have 20 and 16. The Tigers' road woes^ have been well documented. To think they can compile a 16-6 road record down the stretch is wishful thinking. 11-11 is probably the best any reasonable person can assume - which would come up short.
^ I think everyone is required to use the word 'woes' when discussing a poor road team's road record.
Besides the road record, the Tigers post-All Star game record under Jim Leyland is another factor. Every year, the Tigers have stumbled home. Why should this year be any different?
Looking at the opponents further, with the current rotation, Zack Greinke would pitch against the Tigers twice, Minnesota once, and the White Sox would miss him entirely. While he has struggled this year compared to last year's dominance, GreinkeSox will probably be out of the race. Minnesota gets Cliff Lee tonight, but misses him later this year (as do the Tigers, luckily).
It all adds up to a more realistic goal being a .500 season record. I still think 90 wins is an outside possibility, and 92 wins would probably take the division.^
^ It is pretty telling that even with my dream sequence record of 28-7, the Tigers would still finish at 91 wins and short of my realistic number of wins to take the division.
The Nightmare Sequence, wherein the author details what it would take to give up all hope.
The Tigers start a 10 game road trip tonight. This is make or break. By the time they get back to Detroit, it will be the second week of September and we'll know a lot more. But I wouldn't be surprised by a 2-8 road trip - Toronto is playing well, Minnesota has found another field for their home field advantage, and KC always plays Detroit tough.
It wouldn't even take that much - anything less than 2 wins @ Minnesota would probably be enough to be a nail in the coffin.
There is plenty else out there - Johnny^ Damon staying in Detroit probably being the biggest thing - but that is for another, hopefully shorter, post.
^ If nothing else, keeping Damon around for another few weeks will hopefully influence Jhonny Peralta to learn how to spell his name correctly.
So, I said a 5 game win streak and 10 of 12 would bring me back...after the first two wins vs. KC, the streak was at 5 and 8 of 11, so that is close enough. Of course, the Twins are winning at a .987 rate or thereabouts, so this might all be moot. But there is a glimmer...faint, but it's there. So I might as well break down the rest of the year while the Tigers chances are still slim.
Who will decide the Central division this year? Aside from the obvious three teams - Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota - we have the other Central teams (KC and Cleveland), which everyone would expect. The three contenders (and I'll continue to refer to Detroit as a contender for the purposes of this post, no need to point out their chances of making the playoffs are barely over half of one percent) play each other a total of 32 times. The other two Central teams are played a total of 30 times. The list of shared opponents - Toronto and Baltimore (8), Texas (6), and Oakland (6). Those are the facts.
The Dream Sequence, wherein the author outlines what it would take for the Tigers to make up a 9 game deficit with 35 games to play.
Detroit plays both teams ahead of them two series apiece, 13 games total, one home and one away. Sweeps are needed at home, and 2/3 on the road. This is possible - the Tigers took 2 of 3 from the White Sox earlier this month. The Tigers also play Toronto for 4. The Tigers split a series with the Jays in July, but that included a split of a double header. Without that, could have been 3 of 4. Let's plan on 3 of 4 again. Six games with the Royals. Without a bullpen meltdown, the Royals would have been swept this week, so 5 of 6 is not out of the question, and a pair of sweeps is certainly attainable. Two against Texas - they are playing well, a split is probably the best case scenario. Three against Cleveland - they've packed it in for the year, this is a sweep. Finally, seven games against Baltimore. This team has shown a lot of life since Buck Showalter arrived, and they've played the White Sox tough this week. That being said, their starting pitching is shaky, their lineup is lacking, and they have no true closer. This needs to be 5 of 7 at the very least.
By my tally, it is 11-2 against Minnesota and Chicago, 3-1 against Toronto, 5-1 against KC, 1-1 against Texas, 3-0 against Cleveland, and 5-2 against Baltimore. That is 28-7. We've seen this before from the Colorado Rockies. It is doable. That whole, one game at a time mantra. One series at a time. (Except, every game, every series, the whole year is on the line.)
Of course, even with that record, the Twins and White Sox have to lose some games. In addition to being 9 back of Minnesota, Detroit is 5.5 back of Chicago. What will the Twins do down the stretch? Four against Texas - they are struggling against the Rangers at the moment. Let's say 1-3. Three against Seattle, starting with a road game the night after another night game on the road at Texas. They lose the first game in the series and another one, 1-2. I've already detailed the 1-5 record against Detroit. Six against KC - 4-2. Six against Cleveland - 5-1 at least I am sure. White Sox - 1-2. Oakland - 2-1. Toronto - 3-1. That brings the total to 18-17. I promise - Scout's honor - I did the series by series record without adding it up along the way, so the fact that this results in the Tigers beating Minnesota by a game...just coincidence.
Chicago? They'll beat Baltimore tonight, 1-0. Yankees - 0-3, I think the Yankees sweep. Cleveland - 4-2. Boston - tough one to gauge...two series, seven games...I'll split down the middle, 3-4 record for Chicago. 1-6 against Detroit. 2-1 against Minnesota. 2-1 against KC. 2-1 against Oakland. 1-2 against the Angels. Grand total - 16-20. Tigers easily eclipse the Sox.
The Reality Sequence, wherein the author takes a more realistic and comprehensive approach to the rest of the year.
I have conveniently left out the home/road splits in the remaining schedule. The Tigers have 13 home games, 22 on the road. The Twins - 19 and 16. The Sox have 20 and 16. The Tigers' road woes^ have been well documented. To think they can compile a 16-6 road record down the stretch is wishful thinking. 11-11 is probably the best any reasonable person can assume - which would come up short.
^ I think everyone is required to use the word 'woes' when discussing a poor road team's road record.
Besides the road record, the Tigers post-All Star game record under Jim Leyland is another factor. Every year, the Tigers have stumbled home. Why should this year be any different?
Looking at the opponents further, with the current rotation, Zack Greinke would pitch against the Tigers twice, Minnesota once, and the White Sox would miss him entirely. While he has struggled this year compared to last year's dominance, GreinkeSox will probably be out of the race. Minnesota gets Cliff Lee tonight, but misses him later this year (as do the Tigers, luckily).
It all adds up to a more realistic goal being a .500 season record. I still think 90 wins is an outside possibility, and 92 wins would probably take the division.^
^ It is pretty telling that even with my dream sequence record of 28-7, the Tigers would still finish at 91 wins and short of my realistic number of wins to take the division.
The Nightmare Sequence, wherein the author details what it would take to give up all hope.
The Tigers start a 10 game road trip tonight. This is make or break. By the time they get back to Detroit, it will be the second week of September and we'll know a lot more. But I wouldn't be surprised by a 2-8 road trip - Toronto is playing well, Minnesota has found another field for their home field advantage, and KC always plays Detroit tough.
It wouldn't even take that much - anything less than 2 wins @ Minnesota would probably be enough to be a nail in the coffin.
There is plenty else out there - Johnny^ Damon staying in Detroit probably being the biggest thing - but that is for another, hopefully shorter, post.
^ If nothing else, keeping Damon around for another few weeks will hopefully influence Jhonny Peralta to learn how to spell his name correctly.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Sorry about that, Tigers!
My jumping back on the ship has caused it to sink a little more...my bad! My Tiger has been raking, at least, and keeping alive any hope for the Triple Crown (albeit those hopes are very remote with Jose Bautista channeling Brady Anderson , 1996 edition). But even Jim Leyland has abandoned most hope:
I'll keep listening when I can, but barring a miracle - and the White Sox and Twins choking - it will have to wait till next year...
"[The Yankees are] going to the playoffs. We're not going anywhere. Somebody is going to get hurt."Do his comment bother me? Some, but I think managers say whatever it takes in those arguments with umpires to get their point across. I also think what he said is true, and he's just saying what everyone else is thinking and feeling anyway.
Read more: Pitch hits Miguel Cabrera, irks Jim Leyland in Tigers' loss | freep.com | Detroit Free Press http://www.freep.com/article/20100819/SPORTS02/8190588/1050/Tigers-plunked-by-Yanks-Cabrera-hit-Leyland-irked#ixzz0x5OBCnnq
I'll keep listening when I can, but barring a miracle - and the White Sox and Twins choking - it will have to wait till next year...
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Okay, I lied...
...it only took 3 straight wins and 4 of 5 (not 5 straight and 10 of 12) for me to lather back up, get on board, and tune back into wxyt.com. Go Tigers!
Side note - on wxyt's afternoon Valenti and Foster show, they always seem to get more feedback when they have a non-sports topic. Like today - it's all about what to do with Detroit and Mayor Dave Bing's comments about needing to rightsize Detroit. Thoughts? Urban farming was brought up a few months ago (maybe even last year), and from what it sounds, corn fields or pavement or grass or ANYTHING is better than neighborhoods with eight occupied houses out of 60. To do it right and effectively, though, eminent domain may be needed. It seemed like, when he took office, Mayor Bing was willing to make the tough decisions and be the bad guy if it meant getting to the goal of saving Detroit. Now he's turning into a regular politician, worrying about catering to everyone while making no progress.
Side note - on wxyt's afternoon Valenti and Foster show, they always seem to get more feedback when they have a non-sports topic. Like today - it's all about what to do with Detroit and Mayor Dave Bing's comments about needing to rightsize Detroit. Thoughts? Urban farming was brought up a few months ago (maybe even last year), and from what it sounds, corn fields or pavement or grass or ANYTHING is better than neighborhoods with eight occupied houses out of 60. To do it right and effectively, though, eminent domain may be needed. It seemed like, when he took office, Mayor Bing was willing to make the tough decisions and be the bad guy if it meant getting to the goal of saving Detroit. Now he's turning into a regular politician, worrying about catering to everyone while making no progress.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Where's the Tiger dirt?
No, not Tigers, but Tiger, as in, Woods. A couple of months ago, you could not avoid it. CNN, TMZ, ESPN, Univision - everyone had every detail of Tiger's fall from grace. Now - crickets. Could it be that people are actually giving him and his family their space and privacy? Or is it just that there isn't anything new to report, and 24-7 coverage of Tiger-Gate 2009-2010 ran its course after 6 months or so?
I don't condone what he allegedly did. I've known enough serial monogamists (not to be confused with CEREAL monogamists - I'LL LOVE YOU FOREVER, CHEERIOS!) to know that there is enough blame to go around, but Tiger does sound like he was the supreme dirt bag if even 5% of the rumors are true. But still - the guy is human, and no one deserves to have their dirty laundry dragged through the streets of the world. At least records of infidelity from 20+ years ago would require some work to find these days - now, once someone clicks "publish" or "post" or "tweet" it is there forever. And when Tiger's kids and grandkids Google/Bing/Yahoo/Altavista (it's going to make a come back, these things are cyclical) his name, they'll find out everything they wanted to know and much much more. So, I hope that humanity is actually giving him a break and letting him deal with his issues in private.
But all bets are off on the next slow news day...
I don't condone what he allegedly did. I've known enough serial monogamists (not to be confused with CEREAL monogamists - I'LL LOVE YOU FOREVER, CHEERIOS!) to know that there is enough blame to go around, but Tiger does sound like he was the supreme dirt bag if even 5% of the rumors are true. But still - the guy is human, and no one deserves to have their dirty laundry dragged through the streets of the world. At least records of infidelity from 20+ years ago would require some work to find these days - now, once someone clicks "publish" or "post" or "tweet" it is there forever. And when Tiger's kids and grandkids Google/Bing/Yahoo/Altavista (it's going to make a come back, these things are cyclical) his name, they'll find out everything they wanted to know and much much more. So, I hope that humanity is actually giving him a break and letting him deal with his issues in private.
But all bets are off on the next slow news day...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Smoke and Mirrors
The End, for me, started when I got a Groupon deal for a month of MLB.tv for $5. Seemed innocent enough - I upgrade from the radio stream for a month for a measly $5. This came out right before the All Star break, so I waited to activate the subscription till after the break (after all, I'm getting 30 days, it would be silly to waste 4 days when the Tigers aren't even playing). The Tigers, coincidently, peaked right before the All Star break, but I wouldn't know that for another month or so. The day before the break, the (hated) White Sox won and the Tigers lost. It was only a one game swing, and the Sox went into first by a scant 1/2 game, so no big deal, right?
Then the wheels started to fall off. Inge broke his hand. Magglio broke his ankle. Guillen pulled a calf muscle. Boesch^ started reading his scouting reports from last year and regressed to being a marginal prospect. I think Leyland got EXTRA black lung. Everyone was falling apart.
^ Another bad sign - in my complicated but insanely addictive fantasy baseball keeper league, I was quick to snap up Boesch, and he helped me to get into first place. I also signed him to a two year contract extension, right in the midst of his downward spiral. ^^
^^ I probably can't steal Joe Posnanski's Posterisk so this can be...the Procaret? Work in progress.
Up until this point, I was all about following the Tigers. The soundtrack for my days at work was 97.1 FM. I was lathered up. Then the losses started coming...and kept coming...my friend and I took our annual summer baseball trip, this year to Boston, and we got to see two walk off Red Sox wins.
When I came back from Boston, Detroit sports talk radio was replaced by the iPod. Watching Tigers games on MLB.tv was replaced by catching a couple minutes of the radio broadcast, if that. Like Joe Pos (brilliantly) wrote about the Mariners, we should have seen this coming. (Easy to see it coming after the fact, but still.) The Tigers pulled this in 2007. At the All Star break, they were in 1st place. A second half fade later, and Detroit was on the outside of the playoffs, looking in. Repeat in 2009 (see: game 163). Repeat in 2010 (see: now). Even in 2006, Detroit managed to blow the division by getting swept by the (adopted home town) Royals. Why the second half swoons? Why the 'bad luck'?
The Central Division has something to do with it. Since the teams are so (polite) evenly matched, or if you prefer (harsh), crappy, every team feels like they are in it. Even KC had a brief hot streak in 2009 and led the division by 3 games! They rode that momentum of hope the whole year. Every minute bit of success in this division will bring people jumping on the bandwagon, when really, a bad (or average) week will bring any team back to the pack.
I think one downfall of the Tigers is their poor road record. Good teams win on the road, at least SOME. This year, it is also their poor intra-division record. Good teams win against there division, usually a LOT.
This year there were a couple rookies (Jackson, Boesch) playing well to start the season, a veteran (Magglio) playing way above his last dismal year, another (Damon) holding his own, and a stud (Cabrera) in the hunt for the triple crown. That masked the lack of production from SS, 2B, C, and 3B. Take away even one of these performers - let alone 3 or 4 - and it goes downhill quickly.
I looked at the Red Sox lineup while we were in Boston, and mentally replaced all of their injured All Stars. Even with 3 missing perennial All Stars, there were 6 legitimate major leaguers. The Tigers? Busta Rhymes at second. Batting thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiird - anyone? Hey, out there in the bleachers, you with the Tigers hat - are you wearing cleats? No? Okay, I guess Raburn will have to do.
Anyway, if the Tigers reel off 5 straight wins, 10 of 12, and are looking at a sub-3 game deficit heading into September, I'll be back on board. Until then, it's Snow Patrol and Fall Out Boy.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Pistons Preview, and WOW
For those online gamers stumbling on this post, no, I will not be discussing World of Warcraft. (Though I was a mean Warcraft II player back in the days of Prodigy Internet, that is not my thing these days.) The WOW (with a capital W) is the trade Joe Dumars made - Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess for Allen Iverson. I repeat - wow. All this trade talk brought up the time when the Pistons almost traded for AI back in 2000 or 2002, some crazy 14 player deal, all held up because Matt Geiger (who?) refused to waive his no trade clause or something. This year's AI is not the AI of 2002. What he is, though, is a proven winner, tough guy, and person who commands respect. You might ask, wasn't Chauncey all those things? Yes, I think he was. But my main criticism of the Pistons since their championship year - and even that year it was an issue, too - is that they blame everyone else waaaaaaay too much. The focus is never within, it is always "they got the calls" or "we'll get them next time" or "they're nothing, just got lucky." That "no one believes in us" mantra worked well to galvanize the team against the Lakers in 2004, leading to one of the most improbable wins in a long time. The following year, there was definite respect from the league, but they fell short, losing in 7 after leading going into the 4th quarter of game 7 at San Antonio. It has been all down hill from there. The next year, they worked super hard all year to get home court advantage to avoid the road game 7, but lost to Miami in the conference finals. The next year, it was Cleveland and LeBron's crazy game. Last year, the Celtics. In 2006, the Pistons were just tired, but the last two years, the Pistons had a lead in the series or won a road game, and they couldn't pull it off. There were complaints, usually from Rasheed Wallace if they were public, about the refs, the BS calls, and a general lackadaisical attitude between games. I am sure Flip Saunders did not help matters, as he didn't seem like someone they really listened to. Michael Curry was brought in this year, and that should only help. A younger former player, Curry had enough respect of his peers to become the player's representative. That should translate well. But even with that, a stronger player's voice was needed. I love Chauncey, he brought the Pistons a championship and back to relevance, and that cannot be understated. I think his jersey belongs in the rafters of The Palace one day. He was also the leader of this team. The players on the team are a direct reflection of the leader. If Sheed is spouting off, it is because Chanucey can't keep him in check. AI can keep him in check. No one will be whining with AI around. I think AI will bring a needed toughness and clutch scoring that we need. He can also make his own shot, something that Rip can't do, and something that was limited to jacking up 3's or trying to draw a foul when Chauncey had the ball. Granted, refs + stupid players made the free throw an almost certainty, but AI can make things happen.
The other side of this is the salary cap story. With Sheed and AI coming off the books at the end of this year, that opens up the chances for the Pistons being so far under the cap it isn't funny. Also, if they fall out of contention, those two guys (or at least one) will be great trading chips at the deadline for people looking to dump salary. Don't expect the Pistons to take on anyone who is under contract through 2010, though, because that is when LeBron, Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo all become free agents. I wouldn't be surprised to see LeBron in Detroit - if Joe D is as much of a class act as he seems to be, I think a lot of players would love to play in his organization. More likely, it will be Wade to Chicago, LeBron to the Knicks, and maybe Carmelo or Bosh could end up in Detroit. (Wouldn't that be funny - Carmelo in Detroit where he should have been all along instead of Darko.)
The last piece of the puzzle is Rodney Stuckey. I have been reading some good things about him. I don't know that much about him, except that I liked what I saw last year in the playoffs. Between him and the guys filling McDyess's minutes not named Kwame Brown, a lot should be learned about the younger, next generation Pistons. Rumor has it that McDyess will be back in Detroit, but that could fall through. Even if he stays in Denver, I like the Pistons to get back to the conference finals this year. I would probably like to see Sheed traded at the deadline for a good pick or a 1st or 2nd year player (read, someone cheap and not on a long term deal). We'll see where this season goes, but regardless, there is some excitement for the future.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Winner for hire...
You've heard of the hired gun - the guy who comes in and is supposed to give the team whatever it lacks, hopefully leading to a championship. You've seen it work - Rasheed Wallace in '04, Dominick Hasek in '02 - and you've seen it fail - Todd Bertuzzi in '07, CC Sabathia for the Brewers this year - but that is the team going out to find that one last puzzle piece. What Marian Hossa did this last off-season flipped the tables a bit.
Hossa, a free agent and hot commodity after helping lead the Penguins to the Stanley Cup Finals, was ready to cash in on a long term deal. (Side note - why are all the hockey contracts these days so long? Like Rick DiPietro's contract with the Islanders a couple years ago, something like 11 years? Maybe there is some nuance in their collective bargaining agreement they are leveraging, but it just seems like that is way too long a time period to guarantee someone money for playing such a violent sport.) Instead he called up the Wings, who had given up on him since they couldn't afford to spend money on him and sign all of the internal free agents. Hossa was fine with that - he'd take less. Ken Holland told him that he couldn't make more than Nick Lindstrom, the team's Captain and leader. Hossa was fine with that too. So the Wings signed him to a one year deal, and Hossa can cash in next year - hopefully after hoisting the Cup.
The question is - will this be a new trend? Athletes SAY they want to win, but the money is what tips the scales time and again. A-Rod couldn't have expected to win in Texas, but that $252 million sure looked nice on the bank ledger. Jose Guillen couldn't think the Royals were contenders, but as long as the checks didn't bounce, he was fine. Some players give home town discounts when they re-sign with teams, but I don't really remember a player in his prime, with many teams ready to offer long term deals, eschewing that and going somewhere that truly gives him the best chance of winning. Will Detroit in hockey be a destination for Stanley Cup seeking free agents? A one-stop-shop for people trying to complete their trophy case? And is that a good thing or a bad thing?
What about other sports? Will there ever be a prime time free agent who decides purely based on the chance to win? And which teams would be the most likely destinations? I guess Randy Moss did that a little this past year when he re-signed in New England, but with his checkered past, who knows what money and how many years other teams would have given him.
I wish Hossa the best, and of course hope he succeeds in his quest in Detroit, but it is just one more thing that makes it hard to root for your team in sports these days. The turnover is so high, you have a hard time keeping track of the guys on your team...but that is for another day.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Hey, Hey, Hockey Town!
Your Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings are back! (That was almost an entire sentence with justifiable caps.) Tonight the Wings lost a close one to the Leafs, 3-2. Actually, I didn't see the game. I don't have Versus, and until I hook one of my parents up with Slingbox, I am out of luck in Kansas City. Some observations courtesy of the box score:
- glad to see Osgood back again
- Holmstrom's two goals are the only offense
- the standard: outshoot the opponent (37-29), still a close game
- Lindstrom led the team in ice time
- Hossa had an assist and plenty of shifts
I am eager to see Hossa work with the other talent on this team. My next post will be about him, as I concentrate on hockey for a couple weeks. I'll still comment on the baseball playoffs when I think about it, but hockey probably won't pique my interest as much as it does now until after the New Year, so better get it while it's hot...
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Batting 6th, your Left Fielder...
...Carlos Guillen?! Does not really inspire confidence, I must say. First off, I don't know why we jacked around so much with positions this year. Maybe having Grandy hurt to start the year just threw everything out the window from Day 1, with Inge starting some games at CF even. Then the old "who's on first, I don't know's on third, and old man Renteria is at short." Guillen from SS to 1B to 3B. Cabrera from 3B to 1B. Renteria from SS to...aw crap, he stayed there the whole year? Well that explains some things. I think Cabrera would have had more long term value as a 3B, just because that position is more difficult to play. You can get any scrub (Thames, Marcus) to play 1B. But I can't really complain about Cabrera - leading the league in homers, top 5 in RBI, and .300+ BA is a great year. Guillen was not BAD at third. He may be even worse in left, but you can at least hide him more easily (only a couple of chances per game versus potentially a couple per inning at third). I think the move is a wash overall - Inge's bat is still in the lineup, Guillen's is there too, along with a as-yet-unnamed catcher. The saving grace might be if Sheffield can play the outfield when he comes back. He will whine less, Guillen can DH, and all will be right with the world.
Of course, none of that answers any questions about the pitching...
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Tigers done, Lions on their way...bah
What a completely disappointing season. The one highlight - Miguel Cabrera turning into the $100+ million dollar man he is being paid to be - is slightly ominous to me because he completely killed the ball while Detroit was pretty much out of it, but choked A-Rod style when the Tigers were in the race and trying to claw their way back in. Of course in Florida, he never had much to play for or any expectations of the team either, so...does that mean he is someone who can't step it up in crunch time? Clutch hitting is somewhat overrated, in my opinion - I think all hitting will average out, clutch or otherwise - but I am hoping this isn't a bad trend. It feels like the Tigers - especially Cabrera but ESPECIALLY Thames - hit a disproportionate number of solo home runs. Not sure what it all means, but I'm just saying it doesn't add up to a winning team (not this year at least).
Oh yeah, and the Lions started playing. Then stopped. Too bad the season has 13 more games. At least Millen is gone. I wonder how long it will be before a Lions GM will draft a WR in the first round for fear of ridicule. 5 years? 10 years? Wake me up when they win a game.
So my friend Andy brought up a good point about sports a few weeks ago, and I am just now getting around to writing about it. Basically, the question is:
Why is there seemingly so much parity in baseball - a sport with no salary cap - while capped sports have great disparities in records?
So, from the surface, you might say, there is no parity in baseball at all! The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets - they all always win, always go to the playoffs...and the Pirates and Royals will always suck. To see the parity, you have to realize that the worst team this year - Seattle (and they were AWful) - won 37.7% of their games. (The Angels had the best record and won 61.7% of the time.) During the season, it is notable for a team to sweep another team in a three game series. Usually the better team wins 2 out of the 3 games. That means the top teams will win around 67% of the time, and the absolute worst 33% of the time. That sounds pretty bad, till you look at football (Miami last year - 6.25% - and New England - 100%), basketball (Miami - 18.5% [bad year for that city] - and Boston - 80.5%), and hockey (Tampa Bay and L.A. - 43.3% - and Detroit - 71.1%). And these are not outliers - the most wins in baseball history is 116, 71.6%, which just barely approaches what those other sports see every year. So why is it, when you have the big, bad, all powerful, all spending teams in baseball and you have an even playing field, salary capped, parity filled group of leagues, the capped teams are more disparate in their records? A couple ideas...
- The season is just waaaaaaaaaaay too long to be successful at that high rate
That is probably the best reason, but I'll lead with it anyway. Even looking at 3 game subsets of the season, one team doesn't always sweep those subsets. 2-1 is still a series win, but keep doing that, and all you'll get is the best record in the league - just not domination Patriots style. Playing together with the long season is the way players are rested in baseball. On day games following night games (probably happens once a week or so), you'll notice the starting catcher sitting out and maybe one or two other regulars on the bench, just to give them a break. Also in play is the amount of travel. Baseball teams will go on the road for weeks at a time as a regular occurrence, and play for 2 weeks straight at times. Unless you're the San Antonio Spurs trying to avoid the annual rodeo in your arena or the Boston Bruins avoiding the circus, basketball and hockey teams play maybe 3 or 4 straight road games at a time. Football teams might play 2-3 straight road games, but they're at home for the week in between, so that hardly counts. Finally, with a season twice as long as basketball and hockey, the sample size is just too large to have any one team win almost all their games or any team lose theirs.
- But what about the money? Wouldn't an uncapped team salary lead to some team being really dominant?
The Yankees tried that, and others (Red Sox, Mets, Tigers) have thrown money at players to get a winner, but that doesn't always work. In fact, since the Yankees have started to just pay dumb amounts of money for their players, they haven't won a World Series. Sure they made the playoffs all the time (before this year - side note, the fact that the Yankees missed the playoffs should be enough for any atheist to admit there is a God) but they haven't won the whole thing since 2000. That is a nice problem to have, true, but it remains that the Marlins have won since then. Money doesn't buy baseball championships. And those other leagues...I can't speak as much for hockey since their cap is new and I still don't really get it all the way, but football and basketball have weird cap situations. Basketball is not a hard cap, so teams can spend as much as they want, but they have to pay a dollar-for-dollar penalty for going over. Teams with lots of extra money lying around - like the Knicks - can spend over the cap, pay the fee, and still...suck. And teams that are below the cap can win big. My theory with basketball is that, since they have so few players (12/team), the mistakes are magnified and the good decisions have a bigger impact. Overpaying for a guy will really hurt your team because a lot of money is tied up in 1/12th of your team. So the value of scouting, drafting well, and picking the right people to keep on your team is very high. One good thing is that the NBA has a solid draft slotting system for payment, so the #1 pick gets $X and that is all - there is no negotiating. That is different from football, where draft picks money is sky high. A guy gets $30 million guaranteed before he's ever played in the NFL? Good for him, but come on, that is just bad business. And the NFL salary cap is inflexible compared to the NBA. Sure, you can pro-rate the bonus over 6 years and only take a $5 million/year hit on the cap, and do some other creative things with roster bonuses vs performance clauses, etc, but the number at the end of the year has to be under the cap or else. The better teams - the New Englands, the Denvers - have great salary cap guys that know how to work the system. They also value those cheap players at the end of the draft and don't overspend on those highly slotted rookies that are unproven. Since teams CAN pay big bucks, they do. Michael Vick has millions from his signing bonus, and that seems like a waste right now. Don't even mention all those Detroit draft busts...that goes without saying. In baseball things are changing a little with regard to the draft. It used to be some players were avoided because they would cost a lot, but then teams willing to pay (Detroit) would get them later in the draft and pay more, but get a better player than the ones that should have been available at that draft spot. That is a smart move because you can pay that young guy very little compared to the veterans and even get something in a trade later on. But other teams are catching on, and the KC's and Pittsburgh's of the world will now sign the best player. Anyway, point being, salary cap is not the end-all, be-all of success.
- The number of important movable parts is too high on a baseball team
This might be as important as the length of the season. Baseball teams have 9-10 (with the DH) players in any given game at any given time that all need to contribute in order to be successful. The other sports can have 1-2 dominant players at key positions and be hugely successful. QB + RB. Goalie + Center. Michael Jordan + anyone else. Baseball is the opposite - you can hide maybe 1-2 scrubs in your daily lineup, but everyone else better be Major League quality if you want to win. Good example: Angel Berroa. He won Rookie of the Year for the Royals when they were almost good a couple years ago, but he faultered in games that mattered and pretty soon got demoted to AAA. This year he's traded to the Dodgers and they are in the playoffs right now. Berroa hasn't changed - hits every once in a while, pretty decent fielder - but the Dodgers have enough other good-to-great players that they can take the hit of having Berroa play and still be successful. The Royals couldn't overcome that. How does a team go from too many scrubs to becoming successful? Luck. Overpaying (the right) free agents. More luck. Minor leaguers coming up and succeeding at the same time. And a little more luck.
This is all a long answer to get to the point that I don't know exactly for sure. The long season is an easy enough answer to explain it all away, but I hope I have added enough other insight to some other key points that this exercise wasn't a complete waste of time.
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